Edgen Crypto·Oct 09 2025, 17:05
[1] Kraken expands CME derivatives access to oil, gold and FX - Blockworks (https://blockworks.co/news/kraken-cme-derivat ...)[2] Kraken expands access to traditional CME contracts like oil and gold | The Block (https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/groun ...)[3] Kraken expands access to traditional CME contracts like oil and gold - TradingView (https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/groun ...)
Related News
Dec 02 2025, 19:33
AI Investment Boom Forecast to Drive Global GDP and Reshape Digital Infrastructure Market
## Executive Summary Financial institutions, led by a bullish forecast from Bank of America, anticipate that sustained capital investment in Artificial Intelligence will be a primary driver of global economic growth through 2026. This wave of spending is not only projected to elevate the GDP of major economies like the U.S. and China but is also creating a robust secondary market for digital infrastructure. The demand for data centers, power, and specialized hardware is creating significant opportunities for chipmakers, infrastructure funds, and even cryptocurrency mining firms, signaling a structural shift in the market. ## The Event in Detail Bank of America projects that the AI-driven capital investment cycle will be a key factor in boosting global economic output into 2026. This sentiment is echoed by other institutions; **Standard Chartered** recently upgraded its 2026 GDP growth forecast for China to 4.6%, citing gains in productivity. The scale of this investment is substantial. According to research from Goldman Sachs and Fidelity, the largest data center operators, including **Amazon**, **Alphabet**, **Meta**, and **Microsoft**, are on a trajectory to spend approximately $405 billion in 2025. This figure is expected to climb to $533 billion in 2026. This spending is overwhelmingly directed at building out AI-optimized data centers, a trend supported by a Goldman Sachs survey indicating that 44% of institutional investors expect technology, media, and telecom stocks to outperform in 2026. ## Market Implications The primary beneficiaries of this capital influx are the "picks and shovels" providers of the AI gold rush. **NVIDIA (NVDA)**, which commands an estimated 90% of the AI data center GPU market, remains a core holding for technology-focused funds. Fidelity's Select Technology Portfolio, for example, allocates over 25% of its assets to the chipmaker. The demand extends to physical infrastructure, with investment firms like **DigitalBridge Group** raising massive funds, such as its recent $11.7 billion vehicle, to finance the construction of data centers. This has also created unconventional beneficiaries. Bitcoin mining operations, including **IREN** and **Cipher Mining**, have successfully pivoted to leasing their powerful data center infrastructure to AI companies, leading to triple-digit percentage gains in their stock values. Furthermore, the boom is causing a ripple effect in the real economy, with a shortage of skilled labor leading to wage jumps of 25-30% for construction workers on data center projects. ## Expert Commentary Industry experts view this trend as a long-term cycle rather than a temporary surge. Adam Benjamin, portfolio manager at Fidelity, stated, "I expect the ‘picks and shovels’ that have brought the AI train this far — graphics processing units, high-speed memory, and data centers — to continue to be integral to successive improvements in 2026 and beyond." He also noted that while this benefits infrastructure players, traditional software companies "could be at risk of major disruption." However, the path is not without challenges. Leslie Golden, Global Head of Capital Formation at **DigitalBridge**, identified the two biggest hurdles as "access to capital and access to power." To mitigate long-term risk, her firm focuses on building multipurpose data centers that can be repurposed from AI workloads to general cloud services if demand shifts. This cautious approach underscores the potential for future market corrections or overbuilding. ## Broader Context The scale of AI investment is now large enough to have macroeconomic implications, influencing GDP forecasts and highlighting the critical role of digital infrastructure in the modern economy. While investor sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, as confirmed by Goldman Sachs' client survey, the same report identifies a potential "AI downshift" as a major risk to equities. The intense demand for capital and power may also become gating items for growth, with some financial underwriters becoming more stringent on complex deals. The current boom, while powerful, hinges on continued growth in AI model complexity and the ability of the market to finance and power its expansion.
Dec 02 2025, 19:30
Bitcoin Volatility Premium Over VIX Widens, Signaling Pair Trade Opportunities Amid Market Rout
## The Event in Detail The spread between the **Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIV)** and the **CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)**, which measures the S&P 500's expected volatility, has widened to a notable degree. This divergence follows a sharp downturn in the digital asset market, where **Bitcoin (BTC)** prices fell from a weekend high of approximately $91,000 to below $85,000. The broader **CoinDesk 20 (CD20) Index** declined by nearly 6% in 24 hours. Volmageddon's BVIV, which tracks 30-day implied volatility for Bitcoin, surged to over 55% during Asian trading hours before settling around 53%. The sell-off triggered over $637 million in liquidations across the crypto market, with more than $430 million originating from altcoins. Tokens such as **Zcash (ZEC)**, **Ethena (ENA)**, and **Celestia (TIA)** experienced significant losses of 20%, 16%, and 14%, respectively. ## Market Implications The widening volatility premium has opened the door for sophisticated pair trading strategies. This involves traders taking opposing positions in the two indices to capitalize on their relative movements. For example, a trader might short BVIV futures while going long on VIX futures, betting that the spread will narrow. Such strategies require significant capital and continuous monitoring, making them more suitable for institutional investors and hedge funds. The market rout has also heavily impacted crypto-related equities. Shares of **Coinbase (COIN)** and **Robinhood (HOOD)** fell more than 6%, while **Strategy (MSTR)**, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, saw its stock plunge by 11%. This reflects growing investor anxiety and a broader risk-off sentiment. ## Expert Commentary Analysts at **Deutsche Bank** attribute the crypto sell-off to a combination of institutional selling, profit-taking by long-term holders, and a more hawkish outlook from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The uncertainty is compounded by stalled crypto regulation in the United States. In contrast, investment bank **Benchmark** reiterated a "buy" rating for **Strategy (MSTR)**, rejecting what it calls a "doom narrative." Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer noted that Bitcoin's price would need to fall below $12,700—a decline of approximately 86% from current levels—before the company would be unable to service its convertible debt obligations. This commentary came even as **Strategy CEO Phong Le** acknowledged the possibility of selling Bitcoin if the company's market value relative to its Bitcoin holdings falls significantly. ## Broader Context The recent market volatility is not occurring in a vacuum. Hawkish remarks from **Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda**, hinting at a potential interest rate hike, have put pressure on global risk assets. A stronger yen could force hedge funds to unwind the "yen carry trade"—a strategy of borrowing yen at low interest rates to invest in higher-yielding assets like Bitcoin. This macro headwind is contributing to a flight to safety, evidenced by a $3.6 billion outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs in November, while traditional safe-haven assets like gold have seen futures rise nearly 7%. The current conditions are testing Bitcoin's integration into diversified investment portfolios, raising questions about whether this is a short-term correction or a more sustained market adjustment.
Dec 02 2025, 19:27
American Bitcoin (ABTC) Stock Plummets Over 40% Despite Broader Crypto Rally
## Executive Summary Shares of **American Bitcoin Corp. (ABTC)**, a cryptocurrency mining company with ties to Eric and Donald Trump Jr., experienced a significant sell-off on Tuesday, with the stock price falling by as much as 51%. The dramatic drop occurred paradoxically as the price of **Bitcoin (BTC)** was rallying, suggesting that the negative sentiment was specific to the company rather than the broader cryptocurrency market. This event underscores the high volatility and company-specific risks inherent in the publicly traded crypto-mining sector, even as the underlying digital assets show strength. ## The Event in Detail On Tuesday morning, shares of **ABTC** collapsed, falling 42% as of 12 p.m. EST after an initial plunge of over 51% in the hour after the market opened. This severe downturn contrasts sharply with the performance of **Bitcoin**, which rallied to over $92,000 on the same day. **American Bitcoin Corp.**, which lists Eric Trump as a co-founder and Chief Strategy Officer, debuted on the Nasdaq in September following a merger. Despite a brief surge post-launch, the stock has since declined by approximately 78% from its September high. According to its third-quarter earnings report, the company holds over 3,000 bitcoin, acquired through mining and strategic purchases, and reported revenues of $64.2 million with a net income of $3.5 million for the quarter. Notably, SEC filings indicate that nearly all major shareholders are restricted from selling their shares until 2026, which suggests the selling pressure may not be originating from its principal investors. ## Market Implications The divergence between **ABTC's** stock performance and **Bitcoin's** price rally indicates that investors are scrutinizing company-specific fundamentals and associated risks rather than simply trading the stock as a proxy for **Bitcoin**. The event had a ripple effect, with shares of mining peer **Hut 8 (HUT)** also declining by 12%. This occurred a day after a broader market downturn saw other crypto-related stocks, including **Coinbase (COIN)**, **Robinhood (HOOD)**, and **MicroStrategy (MSTR)**, fall amid general risk-averse sentiment driven by uncertainty over potential interest rate policies. ## Broader Context The cryptocurrency market has been marked by significant volatility. After reaching a record high of nearly $126,000 in October, **Bitcoin's** price has fallen more than 30%, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. Higher yields on traditional assets like bonds can reduce the appeal of riskier investments such as cryptocurrencies and related equities. The sharp decline of **ABTC** serves as a case study in how political associations and individual company performance can lead to outcomes that are decoupled from the general trajectory of the digital asset market, presenting unique risks for investors in this sector.