IDF warns of deeper Lebanon push as 3-front conflict escalates

Israel's military chief warned troops must prepare for sustained combat across multiple fronts, signaling the US-brokered June ceasefire framework may not halt deeper Israeli incursions into southern Lebanon.

"Military operations across all fronts are not yet complete, and the IDF must be ready for continued combat," Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, said during a visit to southern Lebanon on Wednesday. "If the situation requires, we will advance deeper into additional areas."

The comments came as Brent crude traded near $92 a barrel, up 4.2% this week on supply disruption fears, while gold held above $2,480 an ounce. The shekel weakened 0.6% against the dollar, and Israel's TA-35 stock index fell 1.8%. The last time Zamir used similarly explicit language about ground operations was in April, preceding a 15-kilometer push into southern Lebanon that displaced an estimated 60,000 people.

The warning threatens to unravel the US-sponsored framework agreement signed June 26, which envisioned a gradual Israeli withdrawal from occupied Lebanese territory in exchange for Lebanese army deployment and disarmament of armed groups including Hezbollah. With the IDF signaling readiness for deeper operations, the risk premium embedded in regional assets is likely to persist.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to meet President Donald Trump in Washington this week, with the Lebanon framework and broader Iran strategy atop the agenda. The US and Saudi Arabia conducted joint strikes on Iran-backed sites in Iraq on Tuesday, widening the theater of operations beyond Israel's borders.

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, in an interview with Anadolu ahead of his first official visit to Turkey, said Beirut remains committed to the framework agreement but stressed its success depends on "clear guarantees, foremost among them a full Israeli withdrawal that is simultaneous with the deployment of the Lebanese army." He called on Turkey to play a supportive role in the international promotion of the framework.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 21% of global oil trade passes, has emerged as a flashpoint. Tehran reiterated its vow to control the waterway earlier this week, a threat that has added $4 to $6 a barrel in risk premium to crude prices since late June, according to traders. The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, rose 2.3 points to 22.8 over the past three sessions.

After the previous major escalation between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006, the conflict lasted 34 days and resulted in more than 1,100 Lebanese and 160 Israeli casualties before a UN-brokered ceasefire took hold. The current cycle of violence, which began in late 2025, has already surpassed that duration, with no diplomatic resolution in sight.

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