The U.S. is preparing to replace its expiring 10% global tariff with a new wave of Section 301 duties targeting as many as 60 economies, threatening to reshape trade relationships from Seoul to Brasilia.
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Greer says new U.S. tariffs coming as 10% global levy expires
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated the administration will soon unveil replacement tariffs before the 10% global levy expires Friday, with Section 301 investigations targeting forced labor and overcapacity across 76 economies.
"The policy has been wildly successful and more is coming," Greer said in an interview, without specifying a timeline for the new measures, which still require notification to Congress and other stakeholders.
The USTR has completed public hearings on forced-labor tariffs of 10% to 12.5% covering 60 economies, including South Korea, while a separate probe into structural overcapacity across 16 nations has yet to propose rates. Brazil already faces a 25% Section 301 tariff following a broader investigation into unfair trade practices.
The transition threatens to upend existing trade agreements. South Korea secured a 15% tariff cap under its bilateral deal with the U.S., contingent on $350 billion in investment commitments including $150 billion for shipbuilding. If the stacked Section 301 duties push the total above that ceiling, it would mark the first breach of the agreement.
The forced-labor tariffs, designed from the outset to replace the global levy, are expected to be finalized as early as this week with few modifications, according to people familiar with the process. The compressed timeline — 150 days since the Supreme Court ruled reciprocal tariffs unlawful in February — left affected countries limited room to mount counterarguments during public hearings.
South Korea's position differs from Brazil's. The Asian ally negotiated its 15% cap last July after the U.S. initially imposed 25% reciprocal tariffs, with the reduction tied to specific investment pledges. A ceremony to open the Korea-U.S. Shipbuilding Cooperation Center is scheduled for Thursday in Washington, a tangible outcome of those commitments.
How the 15% cap could hold — or break
The mechanism for maintaining the ceiling remains unclear. One option would impose the overcapacity tariff separately and then reduce it to keep the total at 15%. Another would attach conditions to arrive at that figure. Either way, if South Korea bears a burden exceeding 15% in any form, criticism that the trade agreement has been violated would be unavoidable, analysts said.
The last major U.S. tariff escalation — the 25% Section 232 duties on steel and aluminum in 2018 — triggered retaliatory measures from the European Union, Canada, and China, reducing bilateral trade flows by an estimated $30 billion within 12 months, according to Census Bureau data. A repeat scenario this time could prove more disruptive given the broader scope of the Section 301 investigations.
For global markets, the uncertainty surrounding the new tariff structure creates headwinds for equities tied to international supply chains, particularly in the automotive, electronics, and industrial sectors. Currency markets are already pricing in volatility, with the Korean won and Brazilian real among the most exposed emerging-market currencies. The USTR has not yet set a date for announcing the overcapacity tariffs, leaving a policy vacuum that could weigh on business investment decisions through the third quarter.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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