B of A Securities Adjusts Nutrien (NTR) Rating Amid Fertilizer Price Concerns

B of A Securities Downgrades Nutrien to Neutral

On October 14, 2025, B of A Securities adjusted its rating for Nutrien (NYSE:NTR), a prominent agricultural nutrient provider, from "Buy" to "Neutral." Analyst Matthew DeYoe maintained a price target of $67.00 following the re-evaluation. This development follows a period of strong performance for Nutrien's stock, which had surged 37.75% year-to-date and was trading near its 52-week high of $65.08 at the time of the downgrade. The latest closing price for NTR was $60.04 on October 13, 2025, with a market capitalization of $29.13 billion.

Factors Influencing the Rating Adjustment

The rationale behind B of A Securities' downgrade centered on three primary factors. The firm cited weakening trends in global fertilizer prices, particularly noting concerns within the ammonia and potash markets. Additionally, Nutrien's valuation was assessed as "fair" at approximately 7 times BofA's projected 2026 EBITDA, following the stock's significant year-to-date appreciation. A third contributing element was the research firm's "persistent concerns about the ag cycle," suggesting a more balanced risk/reward profile for the company in the near term.

"The downgrade reflects BofA's assessment that the fertilizer price rally is likely running out of momentum, with specific concerns about ammonia and potash markets," according to reports on the firm's decision.

Broader Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets

The analyst community presents a mixed but generally cautious outlook on Nutrien. The overall consensus rating across analysts is a "Hold," with 13 analysts recommending a "Hold," 6 a "Buy," 1 a "Strong Buy," and 1 a "Sell." This indicates that, on average, analysts anticipate Nutrien's stock to perform in line with the broader market. Differing price targets underscore this varied perspective:

• MarketBeat reports an average one-year price target of $62.39 from 21 analysts, suggesting a 3.32% upside from a recent price of $60.39, with individual targets ranging from $50.00 to $72.00.
• Raymond James analyst Steve Hansen, who downgraded Nutrien from "Outperform" to "Market Perform" in June 2025, maintained a price target of $68.00.
• The GuruFocus GF Value estimates a one-year target of $49.79, implying a potential 19.77% downside from a price of $62.06.

For context, Nutrien's "Hold" consensus contrasts with an average "Moderate Buy" rating for the broader "basic materials" sector, suggesting a relatively less favorable view compared to industry peers.

Company Performance and Strategic Moves

Nutrien's recent financial disclosures reveal a complex picture. The company reported Q2 2025 earnings per share (EPS) of $2.65, surpassing analyst forecasts of $2.39. However, revenue for the quarter fell short of expectations, coming in at $10.44 billion against an anticipated $10.55 billion. Looking ahead, analysts anticipate 2025 revenues of US$26.4 billion (a 5.6% increase year-over-year) and per-share earnings of US$3.86 (a 38% increase), reflecting some optimism following the latest results.

In a strategic move, Nutrien announced its decision to sell its 50% stake in Argentine nitrogen producer Profertil S.A. for approximately $600 million, with the transaction expected to close by the end of 2025. While this move initially garnered favorable market reaction, Jefferies subsequently lowered its price target for Nutrien to $60.00, maintaining a "Hold" rating, citing a mixed outlook. Institutional ownership data indicates a 1.29% decrease in total shares owned by institutions over the last three months, yet a put/call ratio of 0.95 suggests a prevailing bullish sentiment among options traders.

Outlook and Key Considerations

The future trajectory of Nutrien's stock will largely depend on the interplay of several factors. The bull case for Nutrien emphasizes its diverse product offerings across segments like Retail, Potash, Nitrogen, and Phosphate, which are seen as mitigating market fluctuation risks, alongside a stable 3.7% dividend yield. Conversely, the bear case highlights recent revenue shortfalls, a relatively high dividend payout ratio of 78.14% that could limit reinvestment in growth, and the inherent volatility of the agricultural sector. Investors will closely monitor global fertilizer prices, the overall agricultural cycle, and the impact of Nutrien's strategic divestments. Other analysts, such as JPMorgan, have expressed more positive views, upgrading the stock to "Overweight" with a $68.00 price target, citing favorable conditions in the fertilizer market, suggesting that a range of outcomes remains plausible for Nutrien in the coming months.