WTI crude holds above $83 as OPEC+ meeting tests supply outlook

Oil markets await the Aug. 2 OPEC+ meeting with WTI crude holding above $83, as Middle East supply risks and record LNG demand complicate the producer group's output decision.

"WTI's resilience above $83 reflects a market pricing in both OPEC+ restraint and a geopolitical risk premium that could vanish quickly if tensions ease," said Muhammad Umair, founder of Gold Predictors.

WTI crude traded near $90.60, above its 50-day EMA of $87.09 and 100-day EMA of $83.66, after rebounding from support at $69. The relative strength index at 58 suggested momentum was cooling from overbought levels rather than turning bearish. Brent crude stood at $98.96, testing resistance at $101.84 — the 0% Fibonacci retracement level — before pulling back, with its RSI rolling over from 70. U.S. commercial crude inventories rose 2 million barrels to 411.7 million in the week ended July 17, the EIA said, defying expectations of a drawdown. Refinery utilization held at 96.1% of capacity, while gasoline demand rose 1% year-over-year to 8.9 million barrels a day and jet fuel demand climbed 9%, showing resilient transportation consumption.

The OPEC+ decision carries outsized weight because WTI sits at a technical crossroads: a break above $93.25 opens a path toward $95.90 and $98.62, while a drop below $90.00 could trigger a retreat to $87.36. For Brent, a sustained move above $101.84 would confirm the bullish trend, while a break below $94.51 — the 23.6% Fibonacci level — could initiate a broader decline toward $89.81. The monthly chart shows Brent trading within a $70-to-$120 range, with volatility likely to persist as long as the price remains below $90.

Beyond crude, natural gas markets face their own supply test. QatarEnergy extended force majeure on LNG shipments to several Asian customers for at least the remainder of the month after disruptions along the Strait of Hormuz — through which Qatar ships almost 20% of global LNG trade — raised winter supply concerns. Global LNG trade reached an unprecedented 56.3 billion cubic feet a day in 2025, the EIA said, and U.S. exports are expected to play a larger role in balancing world markets under current geopolitical conditions. Natural gas futures traded at $2.89, below the 50-day moving average of $3.03 but above the 100-day MA of $2.88. The RSI at 41 indicated weak buying pressure; a close above $2.95 is needed to open $3.03 and $3.09, while a break below $2.83 would increase selling pressure toward $2.78.

The oil market's direction remains tied to headlines out of the Gulf. President Donald Trump's declaration that the interim Iran deal was over triggered a sharp rally, with Brent touching $79 before extending gains. The initial shock rippled through inflation-sensitive assets: bonds and gold came under pressure as oil climbed, reflecting the transmission channel from higher fuel costs to transportation expenses and business input prices. The last time WTI traded at current levels during comparable Middle East tensions was in mid-2025, when the initial deal collapse pushed prices toward $80 before consolidation set in. This time, the supply backdrop differs: U.S. production remains elevated, and OPEC+ holds spare capacity that could offset disruptions if the group chooses to act.

If OPEC+ announces deeper output cuts, WTI could challenge the $93.25 resistance and target $95.90. If the group signals a willingness to increase supply to offset any Iran-related disruption, prices could drop sharply toward $87.36 support. For now, oil prices may trend with headlines, shipping concerns and inflation fears rather than traditional supply-and-demand dynamics, with the OPEC+ decision on Aug. 2 likely to determine the next directional move.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.