Trump plans broader Iran offensive, 21% of global oil at risk

President Donald Trump convened a Situation Room meeting to discuss a large-scale offensive against Iran, broader than current Hormuz operations.

President Donald Trump convened a Situation Room meeting July 14 to discuss a large-scale offensive against Iran, three people said, as the US blockade of Iranian ports resumes at 4pm ET — threatening the Strait of Hormuz and 21% of global oil supply.

"The scale will be broader than the current strikes around the Strait of Hormuz," one of the three people familiar with the discussions told Axios, speaking on condition of anonymity to describe sensitive deliberations.

The meeting comes as the US blockade of Iranian ports — set to resume at 4pm ET — enters a new phase after Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps struck tankers in the strait, killing at least two crew members. Iran also launched attacks against US sites in Bahrain and Jordan, according to Iranian state media. Multiple explosions were reported near Iranian port cities during the day. President Trump earlier abandoned his threat of a 20% fee on cargo passing through the strait, saying it would be replaced by trade deals with Gulf states after calls from those countries.

The Strait of Hormuz handles about 21% of global oil consumption, making any military escalation a direct threat to energy markets. A broader offensive risks disrupting tanker traffic at a time when the region is already on edge after tit-for-tat strikes. Shipping operators are making hour-by-hour decisions on whether to transit the strait, with some willing to take the risk and others avoiding the chokepoint entirely, according to shipping industry executives.

The escalation marks a dangerous new phase in US-Iran tensions. The last time the two nations engaged in direct military exchanges of this magnitude was after the January 2020 US strike that killed Qassem Soleimani, when Brent crude briefly surged above $70 a barrel. The current context is more severe, with the blockade and ongoing strikes representing a sustained confrontation rather than a single event. Lawmakers have also demanded the Pentagon release findings from its probe into a separate strike on an Iranian school, adding political pressure on the administration as it weighs next steps.

The White House meeting indicates that the administration is preparing for a significant escalation beyond the current operations, which have focused on naval engagements and strikes on Iranian military assets near the strait. The broader plan under discussion could include strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, military command centers, or infrastructure deeper inside the country, according to the Axios report. Such an expansion would represent the most direct US military action against Iran since the 1988 Operation Praying Mantis, when the US Navy destroyed Iranian oil platforms and naval vessels in response to mining of international waters.

Strait of Hormuz at the Center

The waterway between Oman and Iran is the world's most important oil chokepoint, with about 17 million barrels per day passing through — equivalent to roughly 21% of global petroleum consumption, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Any disruption, even partial, would have immediate consequences for crude prices and global inflation expectations. During the 2019 attacks on Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq and Khurais facilities, Brent spiked 15% in a single day, illustrating the market's sensitivity to supply disruptions in the region. A sustained closure of the strait would be far more consequential, potentially cutting off supply from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE.

Defense and energy stocks are likely to benefit from the heightened geopolitical risk premium, while broader equity markets face headwinds as investors rotate into safe-haven assets. Gold has historically gained during periods of Middle East turmoil, and the dollar typically strengthens on flight-to-safety flows. Brent crude futures are expected to open higher when trading resumes, with options markets already pricing in elevated tail risk. The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, has climbed as traders hedge against further downside. The next 24 hours will be critical: if the blockade triggers further clashes or if the planned broader offensive is confirmed, oil prices could see their largest single-day move since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine invasion. Traders are watching for any confirmation of the plans discussed in the Situation Room, which would mark a decisive shift in the conflict's trajectory.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.