Key Takeaways:
Standard Chartered is standing by its $100,000 bitcoin forecast, arguing that recent volatility tied to Strategy Inc.'s pivot is a communication issue rather than a fundamental threat.
Standard Chartered reaffirmed its $100,000 end-2026 bitcoin price target, calling recent weakness tied to Strategy Inc.'s shifting treasury approach a communication challenge rather than a solvency problem, as President Donald Trump renewed his support for the cryptocurrency.
"The problem with 'never sell' is that it constrains how bitcoin can be perceived as doing," Geoffrey Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said in a note shared with The Block on Friday. If the company communicates the new arrangement effectively, it "should remove the need for Strategy to sell any bitcoin at all," he said, comparing the mechanism to a central bank pledging to do "whatever it takes."
Strategy, the largest corporate bitcoin holder with 843,775 coins representing more than 4% of the total 21 million supply, has shifted from its "never sell" mantra toward using its holdings as backing for STRC, a perpetual preferred stock with roughly $10 billion notional outstanding. STRC hit an intraday low of $71.25 on June 26 against a $100 par value after the company disclosed it had sold 32 BTC. The security now trades around $90, with a $2.55 billion USD reserve equal to 17.4 months of dividend coverage. Bitcoin traded at $64,300 as of Friday, down from its all-time high of $126,198 reached in October 2025.
The stakes extend beyond one company's balance sheet. Trump said at a White House event on July 6 that backing Bitcoin was necessary for the US to "beat China," describing the asset as "powerful" and warning that rival nations could dominate the industry. Standard Chartered has maintained a longer-term target of $500,000 before Trump leaves office, a forecast that has drawn skepticism from some analysts. Sam Daodu of 24/7 Wall St. said forecasts between $200,000 and $500,000 were achievable under favorable conditions but called million-dollar projections speculative. JPMorgan analysts said Strategy's formalized sale policy introduces "avoidable two-way risk" into crypto markets, while Grayscale's Zach Pandl argued the sales strengthen the balance sheet and help bitcoin find a more durable bottom.
The STRC feedback loop
Kendrick argued that STRC is heavily overcollateralized given its bitcoin backing and should trade back toward $100. The negative feedback loop between Strategy's actions and bitcoin prices took hold once STRC broke sharply from par, a divergence that began after the June 1 announcement that Strategy had sold 32 BTC the previous week. Strategy sold 3,588 BTC for about $216 million last week, its largest disposal to date, using proceeds to fund preferred stock distributions and replenish the reserve.
With mNAV — enterprise value divided by the value of its bitcoin holdings — now around 1.0, the original model of issuing shares to buy bitcoin no longer produces the same arithmetic advantage. Kendrick treats the episode as noise rather than a signal about bitcoin's medium-term direction, calling the coin "a screaming buy" at $64,000.
Trump's expanding crypto footprint
Trump's renewed support for Bitcoin comes as his family's crypto holdings face renewed scrutiny. Ethics filings disclosed more than $1.4 billion in crypto-related assets and income. Asked whether the holdings created a conflict of interest, Trump told CNBC "there's nothing illegal," adding that his son Eric manages the investments. Former White House lawyer Ty Cobb described Trump's recent crypto ventures as "the greatest onslaught of corruption in the history of mankind in the last 18 months." The White House has said the president complies with all applicable ethics requirements.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
