Solana flashes first SuperTrend buy signal since October with $78 breakout

Solana rose 30% from its June low to trade near $78, triggering its first SuperTrend buy signal since October 2025.

"The ATR trailing stop has flipped below price, marking the first SuperTrend buy signal since October 10," Ali Martinez, crypto analyst known as Ali Charts, said in a post on X. "If buying pressure continues to build, SOL could rally toward $96 or even $121."

The recovery from $60.13 pushed Solana above its 50-day exponential moving average at $76.82, establishing that level as immediate support. On the 5-hour timeframe, the relative strength index climbed to 52.03, the stochastic oscillator reached 72.62, and the average directional index hit 31.78 — all pointing to improving short-term momentum, according to Investing.com data. Circle minted $500 million in USDC on the Solana blockchain on July 14 in two $250 million tranches, pushing cumulative 2026 issuance past $66.76 billion, per on-chain data tracked by Onchain Lens.

The $98 weekly resistance has rejected Solana every time since February. A decisive close above that level would break the bearish structure and open the path toward $121. Below $60, the setup invalidates entirely. The Agave v4.2 release, targeted for Aug. 17, introduces foundational features for the Alpenglow consensus upgrade that aims for 150-millisecond finality.

Hodler accumulation offers a counterweight to overhead supply

Glassnode's Hodler Net Position Change metric has remained positive throughout 2026, showing long-term investors have been adding to their positions even as price declined. That accumulation contrasts with the overhead supply at $83.79 and $90.22, the Fibonacci retracement levels plotted from the $98.41-to-$60.13 drop.

The realized price of Solana sits at $116, well above the current market price, indicating the aggregate holder base faces unrealized losses. That dynamic can trigger selling on bounces until broader capital inflows return. Recent selling pressure was reinforced by a $15.14 million on-chain SOL transfer from Alameda Research, which preceded just over $10 million in long liquidations.

$78 support and the path to $98

The $75-to-$77 zone must hold as support for Solana to sustain its recovery toward $100, according to analyst Michaël van de Poppe. The 100-day moving average near $80.30 represents the first major overhead barrier. CoinGlass liquidation data shows dense short-liquidation clusters stacked between $78.50 and $80, with additional concentration toward $81.50 — a push through those levels could trigger forced buying from bearish positions.

Solana's tokenized real-world assets have grown to roughly $3.3 billion, and the network's partnership with SBI Holdings to expand on-chain financial infrastructure in Japan adds to the institutional footprint. The next catalyst on the calendar is the Agave v4.2 release targeted for Aug. 17.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.