Key Takeaways:
Silver (XAG/USD) reached $67.33 an ounce in Asian trading Thursday, a two-month high, after the US Treasury doubled its long-dated bond buyback program.
The Treasury said it will raise liquidity-support buybacks for securities maturing in 10 years or more to at least $4 billion per operation from $2 billion, effective Sept. 9 through Nov. 4, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Ten-year US yields fell more than 1.5 percent to near 4.64 percent, while the 30-year dropped almost 2 percent to about 5.18 percent, and the dollar index slid to a seven-week low of 98.77. The move extends a rally built on a sixth straight annual supply deficit, projected at 46.3 million ounces in 2026, with above-ground stocks down 762 million ounces since 2021, per the Silver Institute and Metals Focus.
Silver last traded above $70 in June, when it reached $71.19. The next test is the $70 level, with July FOMC minutes showing several officials favored rate hikes if inflation stays elevated — a scenario that could pressure non-yielding assets.
Mine output is expected to reach 820 million ounces in 2026, with primary silver mines supplying only 28 percent of that total, according to the Silver Institute's February outlook. The rest comes as a byproduct of gold, copper, lead and zinc operations, limiting how quickly supply can respond to price.
China adds another squeeze point. The Ministry of Commerce published rules for 2026-2027 state-trading enterprises exporting silver, with only approved firms eligible, per Korean business daily JoongAng. China controls an estimated 60 percent to 70 percent of global silver refining capacity and exported 4,600 tons in the first 11 months of 2025.
Silver trades at $67.10, above the 20-period exponential moving average at $63.20, with the relative strength index at 61.48, according to FXStreet technical analysis. Immediate support sits at $67.10, then $63.20; a break above $70 opens the way toward the June 16 high of $71.19.
Gold, the closest peer, rallied 2.8 percent to $4,546 an ounce on the same buyback news, while silver is up more than 150 percent year-over-year. The metal's dual role as an industrial and precious asset means it tracks global manufacturing alongside investor flows, leaving it more volatile than gold on macro days.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
