LNG exports to add $1.4 trillion to GDP, support 555,000 jobs

US LNG exports are set to become the country's second-largest net export industry by 2031, with feedgas demand doubling to 36 bcf/d and investment exceeding $1 trillion through 2040, an S&P Global study shows.

"The profound growth of US LNG is exceeding all expectations," said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman at S&P Global and study chair. "The economic gains in terms of jobs, GDP and labor income are on track to surpass all prior expectations, while the abundance of US gas resources means that domestic prices remain among the lowest in the world."

The study projects 555,000 jobs supported annually through 2040, a $1.4 trillion contribution to US gross domestic product, $2.9 trillion in total business revenues, $206 billion in federal and state tax revenue and $630 billion in labor income. Those figures exceed the December 2024 projections by $100 billion in GDP and $400 billion in business revenue. The US, already the world's largest LNG supplier, is expected to capture more than one-third of the global market. Seven new projects have taken final investment decisions since the lifting of the US LNG export pause in January 2025, with several more expected in the next six to 12 months.

The expansion carries implications beyond US borders. Under a scenario where post-2025 LNG investment had not materialized, global LNG prices would run 50% higher for Europe and Asia by 2031, transferring as much as $76 billion annually to non-US suppliers — with Russia, which has 14 bcf/d of underutilized export capacity, among the largest beneficiaries, the study said. As the US is currently the top LNG supplier to Europe, any curtailment of American flows would primarily benefit Russian gas exports, it added.

Domestic Prices See Negligible Impact

The study projects an average increase in end-user gas costs of just 1.6% per household from 2026 to 2031, with US domestic natural gas prices remaining among the lowest in the world for both residential and industrial sectors. Since 2010, domestic prices have trended downward even as gas demand grew 70%, the study notes. More than 45 years of identified commercial gas resource at today's production levels underpin the supply outlook.

Flexible US LNG export capacity has also acted as a domestic price shock absorber. During Winter Storm Fern, up to 9 bcf/d of feedgas was redirected for domestic consumption, providing critical supply for residential heating markets during surging winter demand. The last time US gas demand grew at a comparable pace was during the early years of the shale revolution in the 2010s, when production from the Marcellus and Permian basins reshaped global energy markets.

Infrastructure Constraints Drive Regional Volatility

While the US has more than 300,000 miles of natural gas transmission pipelines — transporting more gas annually than the combined consumption of 130 countries — key bottlenecks remain. The study examines the impact of expanded pipeline capacity in the US Northeast, where winter heating and growing power loads have created extreme price volatility.

New capacity additions could reduce peak winter month gas prices by more than 20% in key New England and New York markets during the 2028-2031 period, the study finds. "The United States is in the enviable position where supply and demand are not a major issue," said Eric Eyberg, vice president for gas and LNG at S&P Global Energy. "Infrastructure constraints and imbalances are what drive higher regional prices and volatility. The ability to build pipelines is the main challenge."

The economic benefits extend beyond gas-producing states, with 42% of jobs and 33% of GDP contributions occurring in non-gas-producing areas. The $44 billion in 2025 LNG exports already exceed the value of US corn and soybean exports combined and represent 70% of the value of US semiconductor exports. LNG exports are now 2.8 times the value of US soybean exports and nearly triple the export value of US movie and TV-related revenues. The study's findings come as the US LNG industry has grown from negligible volumes a decade ago to a $44 billion export sector in 2025, a trajectory that S&P Global expects to accelerate as new liquefaction capacity comes online.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.