Iran, Turkey, Oman hold Strait of Hormuz talks after 3 ship strikes

Iran, Oman and Turkey convened diplomatic talks on the Strait of Hormuz's security after three merchant ships were struck off Oman, threatening supply routes that carry about 20% of the world's crude.

"The White House opposes any unilateral fee on transit through the strait and is leveraging the prospect of lifting sanctions on Iranian oil to de-escalate," a US official familiar with the discussions said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The US military launched strikes against Iranian targets following the attacks on three merchant vessels in waters off Oman, according to a Pentagon statement. The diplomatic track — involving Tehran, Ankara and Muscat — signals an effort to contain the crisis before it disrupts the roughly 17 million barrels of oil that transit the chokepoint daily, data from the US Energy Information Administration shows.

Any sustained disruption at the Strait of Hormuz could push Brent crude above $100 a barrel for the first time since 2022, analysts estimate, while oil-dependent economies from Japan to India face higher import costs. The next round of talks has not been scheduled, but the parties are expected to meet again within weeks.

The meeting in Ankara shows the widening geographic scope of the crisis. International arrivals to Azerbaijan dropped 11% in May 2026, the country's tourism board reported, as geopolitical instability and airspace disruptions in the Middle East deterred travel. The Caspian nation, which borders Iran, has seen its aviation sector affected by the regional tensions.

The White House's dual-track approach — military strikes combined with diplomatic engagement — reflects the delicate balance Washington must strike. The US has maintained a naval presence in the region since the tanker security incidents of 2019, when attacks on vessels near Fujairah and Abqaiq temporarily removed about 5.7 million barrels per day of Saudi production from global markets. That precedent showed how quickly Hormuz-related disruptions can cascade through oil markets.

A Chokepoint Under Pressure

The Strait of Hormuz, a 21-mile-wide passage between Oman and Iran, handled about 21% of global petroleum consumption in 2023, according to the EIA. Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait in response to sanctions pressure, most notably in 2018 when then-President Hassan Rouhani warned that no one would be able to export oil from the region if Iran's exports were blocked. The current talks suggest Tehran is pursuing a diplomatic off-ramp rather than escalation, though its negotiating position has strengthened after the US strikes drew international criticism.

For oil markets, the risk premium embedded in crude prices is likely to persist as long as the talks remain inconclusive. WTI crude has already priced in a geopolitical risk premium of $5 to $8 per barrel since the ship attacks, according to traders surveyed by S&P Global Commodity Insights. A breakdown in negotiations could add another $10 to $15 per barrel, while a successful resolution could erase the premium entirely.

What Comes Next

The involvement of Turkey — a NATO member with close ties to both Iran and the West — adds a diplomatic wild card. Ankara has positioned itself as a mediator in regional conflicts, most recently brokering grain corridor talks between Russia and Ukraine. Its role in the Hormuz discussions could provide a channel for back-channel negotiations between Washington and Tehran, though no direct US-Iran talks have been confirmed.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.