Gold tops $4,400 as GDX miners ETF finally catches up

Gold broke $4,400 per ounce on Aug. 11, and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF has finally moved with it.

Central banks worldwide purchased 289 tons of gold in Q2 2026, up 62 percent year-over-year, according to World Gold Council data, with the People's Bank of China adding 20 tons in July for a 21st consecutive month of accumulation.

Spot gold traded at $4,409 per ounce on Aug. 13, up $41 from the prior session, after July U.S. CPI cooled to 3.4 percent annually from 3.5 percent. The metal remains 21.6 percent below its January all-time high of $5,608, having fallen to $3,997 on July 13.

UBS projects gold at $5,000 per ounce by the first half of 2027, contingent on the Fed holding rates steady before cutting in 2027. The 10-year TIPS yield at 2.43 percent as of Aug. 6 remains the key variable for the metal's direction.

GDX Tracks Gold's 31 Percent Year-Over-Year Gain

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX) has begun tracking gold's upward move after underperforming the metal through the spring correction. The fund's recent advance follows gold's recovery from $3,997 on July 13, when COMEX futures sank into negative territory for the year.

Gold's 50-day moving average sits near $4,200, which acted as resistance since March. The Aug. 7 close of $4,399.70 — a $292 weekly gain, the largest since January — broke through that level. The 200-day moving average near $4,500 is the next technical target.

PBOC Adds 20 Tons in 21st Month of Buying

The People's Bank of China increased gold holdings to 2,366 tons as of end-July, adding 640,000 ounces in the month, the largest monthly increase since October 2023. Poland and the Czech Republic were also among the top buyers in Q2, according to WGC data.

The demand structure has shifted: central banks and physical buyers supported the market while investment demand fell. ETF outflows totaled 45 tons in Q2, with U.S. funds recording 61 tons of net outflows in the first half. Total Q2 demand, including over-the-counter transactions, was 1,269 tons, flat year-over-year, but first-half value reached a record $380 billion.

The July U.S. employment report showed non-farm payrolls fell by 23,000, more than 100,000 below consensus, and average hourly earnings grew 3.2 percent year-over-year, the slowest since May 2021. The data reduced market pricing for a September rate hike from about 61 percent.

UBS's $5,000 target for the first half of 2027 depends on the Fed holding policy rates steady before resuming cuts. If inflation data surprises to the upside and the Fed moves to hike in September, gold could retest the low-$4,000 range.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.