Gold rebounds above $4,000 as traders await US CPI data

Gold climbed back above $4,000 an ounce on July 14, recovering from a two-week low as traders positioned for the US Consumer Price Index release that will shape the Federal Reserve's next policy move.

"Gold is finding support from safe-haven flows ahead of the CPI print, which could determine whether the Fed maintains its current stance or pivots," said Omar Tariq, a commodities strategist at a Singapore-based trading desk. "A higher-than-expected reading would reinforce gold's role as an inflation hedge."

COMEX gold futures traded at $4,015.20 an ounce as of the London morning fix, up 1.3% from the prior session's close of $3,964.80. The rebound followed a 2.4% decline on July 13 after Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that persistent inflation could warrant further rate increases, pushing the metal to a two-week low near $3,950.

The US CPI report due at 08:30 ET will be the next catalyst. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect headline inflation to moderate to 3.1% year-over-year from 3.3% in May, while core CPI is forecast at 3.4%. A print above consensus would strengthen the case for gold as a store of value, while a downside surprise could pressure the metal by boosting the dollar and Treasury yields.

Gold has rallied 28% year-to-date, supported by central bank purchases, geopolitical uncertainty tied to the Hormuz Strait situation, and persistent inflation concerns. The metal's 14-day relative strength index stood at 48, neutral territory after last week's selloff. Key support sits at $3,950, the July 13 low, with resistance at the all-time high of $4,120 set in June.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.