Bitcoin treasury stocks sink 50% as BTC crash threatens $38B in holdings

Bitcoin fell 50% to about $63,000 from its October record of $126,000, saddling corporate treasury holders with tens of billions in unrealized losses. The token was down 2.7% in the past 24 hours as of 11:30 UTC, with 24-hour trading volume of $28.4 billion, according to CoinGecko.

"The framework is in bottom-watch mode, with the low most likely a matter of months rather than weeks away," Benjamin Cowen, a member of BeInCrypto's Market Intelligence experts council, wrote in a July memo.

MicroStrategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder with about 226,000 BTC acquired at an average cost of roughly $37,000, has seen its stock fall 66% from its November 2025 peak. The company's Bitcoin holdings, valued at about $14.2 billion at current prices, are below the estimated $18.5 billion total acquisition cost, implying an unrealized loss of roughly $4.3 billion. BMNR and BSTR, two Bitcoin-focused exchange-traded products, have each lost more than 45% of their net asset value since October.

The selloff has pushed Bitcoin's market capitalization below $1.25 trillion, down from $2.5 trillion at the October peak. Bitcoin's dominance rate stands at 54.8%, according to CoinMarketCap. Analysts at NYDIG project a potential bottom near $38,000 to $39,000 in early October if historical bear-market patterns repeat, while veteran trader Peter Brandt has identified Oct. 4 as a possible turning point with Bitcoin potentially falling into the high-$40,000 range.

$38 Billion in Corporate Treasury Exposure at Risk

The combined Bitcoin holdings of publicly traded companies and Bitcoin-focused funds total roughly $38 billion at current prices, according to data from Bitcoin Treasuries. MicroStrategy alone accounts for about 37% of that total. The company's debt-financed acquisition strategy, which relied on convertible notes and senior secured debt, faces its most severe test since the 2022 bear market.

Standard Chartered analysts have set a floor of $59,000 for this cycle, while Galaxy Research projects a worst-case scenario near $40,000. Three AI models surveyed by CCN produced scenarios ranging from $38,500 to $57,700, with ChatGPT's base case at $49,500 between late September and mid-October.

On-Chain Signals Point to Extended Reset

On-chain data suggests the bottoming process remains incomplete. The MVRV Z-Score, a metric that compares market value to realized value, reads 0.395, according to Glassnode. Prior cycle bottoms formed only after the metric reset below zero, implying price needs to trade beneath the realized price of about $53,000.

Bitcoin's 200-week simple moving average near $63,100 has been reclaimed, but the identical break-and-reclaim sequence appeared in 2022 before the final low arrived. Cowen's framework requires two consecutive weekly closes above the 50-week SMA near $86,500 for confirmation — a level roughly 37% above current prices.

ETF holdings, which peaked above 1.25 million BTC in late 2025, have since rolled over, with the decline steepening in recent weeks, according to data from CoinGlass. The marginal bid that absorbed supply during the rally has faded, leaving the market reliant on spot demand that has yet to materialize at scale.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.