Bitcoin realized losses signal bear-market bottom as $107K buyers exhaust selling

Bitcoin holders who bought one to two years ago are exhausting their selling pressure, a pattern that has historically preceded bear-market bottoms.

Bitcoin's 1-2 year holders recorded $75 million in realized losses before the 30-day moving average began to reverse, mirroring structures seen at prior cycle bottoms.

"The 30D-SMA of their realized loss cooling and rolling over has often been among the clearest early signals that the heaviest distribution phase is behind the market," Cryptovizart, lead research analyst at Glassnode, said in an X post Friday.

The cohort accumulated between July 2024 and July 2025, when Bitcoin rose from about $62,800 to $107,000. As prices declined, those buyers began realizing losses at an accelerating pace — a pattern that historically persists until the group exhausts its sell pressure. The 30-day rolling tally recently surpassed $75 million before turning lower, according to Glassnode data.

The realized loss reversal joins a growing list of on-chain metrics pointing toward a potential bottom. Long-term holders who bought near last year's highs have been using relief rallies to exit at a loss, a pattern consistent with exhausted conviction, Glassnode data shows. Short-term holders who accumulated near recent lows have also been taking profit at volumes last seen in May, when Bitcoin briefly rose above $82,000.

$69,000 Cost Basis Becomes Key Resistance

The next battleground sits at $69,000, the aggregate cost basis for short-term holders, according to Glassnode's Week 28 Onchain newsletter. That level also coincides with Bitcoin's 2021 all-time highs. "The first meeting with that level will likely draw a strong reaction, because the people most inclined to sell are the ones about to be made whole," the newsletter said.

Bitcoin traded at $63,989 as of Friday, about 8% below that threshold. The stochastic relative strength index on two-month time frames is also creating conditions that have historically preceded market reversals, according to Cointelegraph.

The exhaustion of selling from cycle-peak buyers does not guarantee an immediate rally, but it removes a key source of overhead supply. If Bitcoin can reclaim the $69,000 level, the path toward $80,000 — a target some analysts have flagged for August — becomes more plausible. A rejection, however, would extend the range-bound grind that has characterized much of 2026.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.