Bitcoin long-term holders add 5,912 BTC as accumulation signal returns

After 12 days of selling, Bitcoin's most patient holders flipped back to accumulation on July 11-12, adding 5,912 BTC.

Bitcoin long-term holders added a net 5,912 BTC on July 11-12, reversing 12 consecutive days of distribution as prices retreated below $62,000.

"This is the first meaningful accumulation signal from long-term wallets since late June, and it historically precedes a 25% or higher rally within the next 30 to 60 days," a CryptoQuant analyst tracking the cohort said.

The shift came as Bitcoin slipped to $61,950, according to CoinGecko data as of 14:30 UTC, with the broader market digesting Strategy's sale of 3,588 BTC for $216 million and a $1.4 billion options expiry on Deribit. Long-term holders — wallets that have held coins for at least 155 days — had been net distributors since June 29, a period during which Bitcoin fell from near $64,000.

The accumulation signal tightens available supply at a time when open interest across major exchanges remains elevated at $34.2 billion, per Coinglass. If the pattern holds, Bitcoin could test resistance at $68,000 in the coming weeks, though the $60,000 support level remains the key line of defense against a deeper correction.

Supply Dynamics Shift as Holders Accumulate

The 5,912 BTC added by long-term holders represents roughly $366 million in notional value at current prices, absorbing a meaningful portion of the selling pressure from Strategy's recent disposition. The company sold 3,588 BTC between June 30 and July 6, reducing its holdings to 843,775 BTC, according to its treasury dashboard. Even after the sale, Strategy remains the largest publicly traded corporate Bitcoin holder, with an average purchase price of $75,476.

The accumulation signal carries additional weight because it follows a period of elevated distribution. Long-term holders had been reducing positions since late June, a trend that coincided with Bitcoin's slide from $64,000 to below $62,000. The reversal suggests that the cohort views current levels as a discount relative to their average acquisition cost.

Macro Headwinds Test the Bull Case

The bullish on-chain signal faces headwinds from the macro environment. The US 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 4.6%, a level that has historically pressured risk assets by drawing capital into fixed income. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $85 million in net outflows on Wednesday, ending a three-day inflow streak, according to data from the funds' websites.

The $1.4 billion Bitcoin options expiry on Deribit on Friday adds another layer of uncertainty. The put-to-call volume ratio remains balanced, suggesting limited directional conviction among derivatives traders. A settlement above $63,500 would give bulls a $190 million advantage, while bears hold a smaller $100 million edge below $61,000.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.