Bernstein sees bitcoin at $150,000 by mid-2027 as debasement trade builds

Bernstein expects bitcoin to recover to $150,000 by mid-2027 and peak near $300,000 in 2029, betting policymakers choose currency debasement over fiscal stress.

Bernstein expects bitcoin to reach $150,000 by mid-2027 and peak near $300,000 in 2029, framing the cryptocurrency as the leading beneficiary of the "debasement trade."

"Following our price-to-marginal cost framework, we would expect the next market peak to be $300,000 by CY2029 and the market recovering to a new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027," Gautam Chhugani, analyst at Bernstein, said in a note to clients.

The forecast rests on the view that the 40-year era of declining interest rates has ended, leaving governments exposed to rising debt-servicing costs as U.S. sovereign debt hits $40 trillion. Rising yields create a self-reinforcing loop of higher interest expenses, wider deficits, and greater borrowing needs, the analysts said. Faced with the choice between fiscal stress and currency debasement, policymakers will favor the latter because it is politically less disruptive.

About 59 percent of bitcoin supply has not moved in the past 12 months, while the cryptocurrency has gained 28 percent over the past 10 days following a roughly 50 percent drawdown from its October 2025 peak. Bernstein said wider access through spot bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury buying helped limit the decline compared with the 75 percent to 90 percent drawdowns seen in previous cycles.

A $500,000 bull case, but a reduced Strategy target

Bernstein's base case assumes bitcoin follows its historical four-year cycle, using a model that values the cryptocurrency as a multiple of the marginal cost of production. Under that scenario, bitcoin returns to around $125,000 by the end of 2026, rises to $150,000 by mid-2027, and reaches approximately $300,000 in 2029.

In an accelerated scenario driven by aggressive institutional capital flows during dollar debasement, Bernstein sees bitcoin reaching $200,000 by mid-2027 and potentially peaking at $500,000 in 2029. The firm maintained its longer-term forecast of roughly $1 million by the end of 2033.

The debasement thesis is showing up in ETF trading activity. Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas said Tuesday that the "debasement trade is starting to replace AI mania," with BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF, IBIT, and SPDR's gold ETF, GLD, returning to the top 10 most-traded ETFs and displacing semiconductor funds that dominated the rankings over the summer.

Strategy target cut to $350

Bernstein maintained its Outperform rating on bitcoin treasury company Strategy but cut its price target to $350 from $450, citing its updated bitcoin cycle outlook and accelerated equity dilution. The target represents 176 percent upside from Strategy's $126.83 closing price on Tuesday.

Strategy currently holds 840,447 BTC, or roughly 4 percent of bitcoin's total supply, while Bernstein said its strengthened balance sheet provides around 3.9 years of cash coverage for annual interest and preferred dividend obligations. The analysts added that continued bitcoin strength and a recovery in Strategy's STRC preferred stock toward $100 could see the company "going kinetic again with bitcoin purchases."

Bitcoin traded near $78,600 as of 06:21 UTC on Wednesday, according to The Block data. The $150,000 mid-2027 target implies roughly 90 percent upside from current levels, while the $300,000 2029 peak forecast would more than triple the price. The divergence between Bernstein's bullish bitcoin call and its reduced Strategy target highlights the firm's view that equity dilution will weigh on the treasury company's relative performance even as the underlying asset appreciates.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.