K33 warns Bitcoin could fall below $100,000 in September due to macro factors and high leverage.

Executive Summary

K33 Research warns that Bitcoin (BTC) could experience a downside squeeze below $100,000 in September. This projection is based on a combination of historical trends, potential macro catalysts, and elevated leverage in the perpetual futures market.

The Event in Detail

September has historically been a weak month for Bitcoin, averaging negative returns. K33 Research highlights that tariffs and upcoming U.S. economic data, specifically the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), could trigger renewed selling pressure. The U.S. PPI data has already exceeded expectations, rising to 3.3% year-on-year, causing a sharp drop in Bitcoin's price.

Market Implications

Elevated leverage in Bitcoin perpetual futures, which has surged to a two-year high exceeding 310,000 BTC (worth $34 billion), increases the cryptocurrency's vulnerability to liquidations. According to K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde, these leverage conditions are similar to previous summer buildups that ended in sharp liquidation cascades. Annualized funding rates have jumped from 3% to nearly 11%, signaling aggressive long positioning during price stagnation.

Expert Commentary

"September carries the dreaded nickname because it has delivered the lowest monthly returns for Bitcoin , averaging –3.77% across 12 years from 2013."

Lunde also noted that support levels around $101,000 and $94,000 may become relevant if the downside pressure intensifies.

Broader Context

Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of 15,399 coins in August, and participation in CME futures has fallen to a historic low, indicating that the market is primed for volatility. While broader crypto ETFs faced outflows, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETFs emerged as a stabilizing force. In Q2 2025, despite Bitcoin falling 8% amid Federal Reserve rate uncertainty and inflation, BlackRock's ETFs absorbed $14 billion in inflows. The cryptocurrency market is also closely watching U.S. jobs reports, as they influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. Lower interest rates generally lead to more liquidity, potentially encouraging investors to seek higher returns in riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.

Q3 2025 crypto trends indicate that institutional adoption is accelerating, with $130 billion in ETF assets under management (AUM) and 1.07 million BTC held by corporate treasuries. However, Bitcoin faced $1.17 billion in net outflows amid macroeconomic fears, while Ethereum ETFs saw $2.96 billion in inflows driven by staking yields and regulatory clarity.