SpaceX sinks 49% to $115 as $100 test looms

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) fell to $115.26 at the July 23 close, down 49% from its $225.64 all-time high and trading roughly $20 below the $135 initial public offering price from June. The decline has wiped out roughly $140 billion in market value from the peak, according to Bloomberg calculations.

"The stock was priced for perfection, and now the market is repricing that risk," said Daniel Sparks, a markets columnist at The Motley Fool. "Even at $124, shares traded at more than 80 times trailing sales for a business losing billions of dollars a year."

Short sellers have piled into the decline. Bearish bets climbed to about 185 million shares, or 29% of the tradable float, up from roughly 40 million shares three weeks earlier, representing close to $25 billion in wagers against the stock. Short sellers already hold an estimated $8.7 billion in paper profits, according to data cited by BeInCrypto. The rapid buildup followed SpaceX's historic Nasdaq debut, which briefly pushed the stock above $200 before the reversal.

The selloff reflects mounting pressure on multiple fronts. SpaceX priced $25 billion in senior notes in late June at rates from 5.35% to 6.65%, a reminder of the heavy capital requirements tied to Elon Musk's AI ambitions after folding xAI and X into the company ahead of the IPO. A broader AI stock selloff this month has compounded the headwind for any company priced on AI growth expectations. The company also scrubbed a Starship test flight this week after several Raptor engines failed to ignite at T-minus zero, with Musk saying two engines need replacement.

August Brings Earnings and Lockup Risks

SpaceX is expected to report its first quarterly earnings as a public company on or around Aug. 6. The company generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025 but lost $4.9 billion. Starlink remains the bright spot, contributing $3.3 billion of the $4.7 billion in first-quarter revenue and serving 10.3 million subscribers as of March. However, average revenue per user has declined from $99 in 2023 to $66 in the first quarter of 2026, suggesting growth is coming from subscriber additions rather than pricing power.

Insider lockup expirations begin rolling off after the earnings report, allowing early shareholders to sell up to 20% of their stock starting on the second trading day after the release. An additional 10% can be sold if the stock trades at 30% or more above the IPO price for at least five of the 10 trading days before earnings — a scenario that appears unlikely at current levels.

Technical Levels and Musk's Long-Term Bet

A technical falling wedge pattern identified by some analysts points to a possible rebound toward $158, but the stock would need to hold above $115 to avoid a test of the $100 level. A break below that psychological threshold would represent a decline of more than 55% from the all-time high, potentially triggering further selling pressure and margin calls across the space and defense investment sector.

Elon Musk has dismissed the selloff, predicting on X that SpaceX will eventually outvalue all material wealth on Earth — a claim he estimates at roughly $600 trillion. The forecast, however, offers no timeline and hinges on goals the company has never specified. Musk separately argued that the scarcity of goods and services will eventually disappear, reflecting his broader worldview on abundance.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.