Key Takeaways:
XRP derivatives open interest near $2.36 billion, more than six times the token's $379 million in 24-hour spot volume, as the price hovers about 3 percent above the $1 support level that has become the market's most closely watched threshold.
CryptoQuant data shows Binance's stablecoin-margined XRP open interest fell to about $186 million on July 31, its lowest level since April 2025, while Bybit held roughly $229 million in the same contract type — about $43 million more than Binance.
The venue gap flipped for the first time in tracked snapshots. Binance carried more stablecoin-margined XRP open interest than Bybit in every prior reading, including about $222 million against $195 million in March and $205 million against $185 million in June. Glassnode's Aug. 5 dataset puts Binance's total futures open interest at $376.1 million, above KuCoin's $334.4 million and Bybit's $253.3 million, so Binance still leads the broader market when all contract types are counted.
A forced liquidation on Bybit's larger book would spread through arbitrage and market-maker activity, carrying the price move across venues — a holder who never touches Bybit can still feel a decline that started there. Polymarket traders priced a 71.5 percent chance XRP touches $1 in August, compared with 18 percent for a move to $1.20.
Lower open interest on one venue means less leverage sitting there to be forcibly closed during a sharp move. If Bybit's book stays larger while Binance's shrinks, XRP's deleveraging is happening unevenly across venues.
Glassnode's Aug. 5 data put Bybit funding at plus 0.001 percent and Binance at plus 0.003 percent, with the open-interest-weighted total near 0.002 percent, close to flat. Assuming 45 percent of Bybit's $229 million book is directional and half of that gets forced closed in a break, roughly $52 million in notional would be vulnerable. Push those assumptions to a cascade scenario — 65 percent directional and 75 percent forced-closed — and the number climbs toward $112 million.
The $1.05-$1.10 range became a key support zone in late June. A break below $1.05 would turn focus toward $1.00, while a reclaim of $1.18 to $1.30 would be needed to break the broader bearish structure. XRP trades below its 50-day moving average near $1.21 and its 200-day average near $1.37, with about 60 percent of circulating supply held at a loss at an average cost basis near $1.48, according to 247 Wall St.
The bull case has Binance's deleveraging turning out to be the real signal: XRP holds $1.04 support, open interest keeps falling on Bybit as well as Binance, and funding stays flat while spot buying absorbs leveraged selling. A reclaim of the 20-day and 50-day averages near $1.08 and $1.12 opens the path to $1.20, then toward $1.37 to $1.47.
The bear case has Bybit's leverage becoming the stress point the data cannot yet rule out. XRP loses $1.04, then $1, while Bybit's stablecoin-margined open interest holds near current levels even as Binance's keeps falling. If Polymarket's 71.5 percent odds on a $1 touch are validated, the decline could run toward $0.95 to $0.97, and a break of $0.80 would open the wider $0.65 to $0.95 range.
XRP's exposure to the $1 test also depends on Bitcoin, which absorbed selling around its $62,000 to $65,000 cost-basis range. The Fed held its target rate at 3.50 percent to 3.75 percent on July 29, with three officials dissenting in favor of a hike, and crypto has lagged the broader risk rally. A sharp Bitcoin swing would test XRP's $1 level at the same time it tests Bitcoin's own support, a scenario neither market may be well positioned to absorb on its own.
Binance's leverage reset is real, but whether it describes XRP's whole market still depends on what Bybit's book does next.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
