US-Iran de-escalation pauses strikes as oil retreats from $100

Iran suspended its retaliatory strikes after the US halted aerial attacks for two consecutive nights, the first pause in a three-week campaign that pushed Brent crude above $100 a barrel and disrupted two of the world's most vital shipping chokepoints.

"We are employing a 'retaliatory deterrence' strategy — imposing proportional costs to force the US to abide by its commitments," Iranian Army spokesperson Akraminia said, according to the Tasnim news agency. He added that the US has "no clear strategy" and is "in a dead end."

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps published a list of US military assets it claims were damaged during its response, though the Pentagon has not confirmed the tally. The lull follows 13 consecutive nights of US strikes that Iran's health ministry said killed 55 people and wounded 629 since June 27. The conflict has expanded beyond the Persian Gulf to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, where Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked two Saudi oil tankers — the Encelia and the Layla — this week, according to the rebels' SABA news agency.

The pause offers the first tangible opening for diplomacy since the US campaign began, but the fragility is extreme. Iran said it has prepared for all scenarios including a US ground invasion, while President Donald Trump warned of "major military punishment" if Houthi attacks continue. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to meet Trump in Washington on Tuesday, and the UK, Germany and France have withdrawn their diplomats from Tehran as a precaution.

Oil Risk Premium Shrinks as Shipping Routes Remain Under Threat

Brent crude fell more than 6 percent to around $100 a barrel on Thursday after the US-Iran preliminary peace agreement collapsed last month, according to the Associated Press. The retreat from recent highs reflects the market pricing in a lower probability of further supply disruption, though the risk is far from eliminated. The Strait of Hormuz handled about a fifth of the world's oil and gas in peacetime, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — through which about 12 percent of global trade passes — remains contested after Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked shipping.

The last time a comparable escalation threatened both chokepoints simultaneously was during the 2019 Abqaiq-Khurais attacks, when Brent spiked 15 percent in a single day before retreating over the following weeks as diplomatic channels reopened. The current situation carries higher stakes: Iran has targeted energy infrastructure and desalination plants in neighboring Gulf countries, while Saudi Arabia has diverted millions of barrels a day of oil exports to its Yanbu port on the Red Sea via an overland pipeline.

Diplomatic Window Opens as Regional Tensions Persist

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned the Security Council that the region is being pulled "into an ever-widening circle of confrontation" and called for Pakistan's mediation efforts to be strengthened. Iraq's Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi visited Tehran to call for peace, promising not to allow Iraqi territory to be used for attacks on Iran.

The US House passed a largely symbolic resolution to halt the war, with a handful of Republicans crossing party lines — a reflection of polls showing the conflict is unpopular among Americans. But the administration shows no sign of shifting course: US Central Command said its strikes are designed to "further degrade Iran's ability to threaten civilian mariners and commercial vessels transiting regional waters," and the US has restored a naval blockade of Iran's ports.

Akraminia said Iran will observe what the US does next and has prepared for three scenarios: a US exit from the war, a large-scale aerial assault under Israeli pressure, or a ground operation. "The war has already expanded to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and our operations have covered US targets from Jordan to the Persian Gulf states," he said.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.