Trump threatens strike on Iran's Gachin nuclear site as oil tops $85

President Donald Trump said the US "may soon" strike Iran's Gachin underground nuclear complex near Natanz, the most fortified site in Iran's nuclear program, as Brent crude topped $85 a barrel and the fourth consecutive night of American airstrikes deepened the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz.

"The strikes are designed to further degrade military capabilities Iranian forces have used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz," US Central Command said in a statement, announcing a new wave of attacks Wednesday hours after a seven-hour overnight barrage. The pace of operations has accelerated since Trump declared the ceasefire over on July 8.

"We're going to hit them very hard tonight. We're going to hit them very hard tomorrow night. We're going to hit them very hard the night after," Trump told Fox News. "And then next week, it gets really bad for them, because next week comes the power plants, next week comes the bridges." He said US representatives delivered a message to Iran on Tuesday urging them to "make a deal."

Brent crude traded at $85.50 a barrel Wednesday, a one-month high, after Trump announced the US would reimpose its naval blockade of Iran's ports and vessels. The benchmark remains well below the $120 peak reached at the height of the conflict but has climbed steadily as the Strait of Hormuz — which handles about 21 percent of global oil trade — remains effectively gridlocked. Iran's IRIB state TV reiterated Wednesday that the strait "remains closed to all vessels," while the US insists it is open to all traffic except Iranian ships. Shipping intelligence firm Kpler reported a "growing loss of confidence" among shippers in using the southern route near Oman's coast, with 56 confirmed incidents and 17 seafarer fatalities.

The Gachin Threat

Gachin, also known as Kūh-e Kolang Gaz Lā or the Shahid Alimohammadi site, sits about 1.6 kilometers south of the Natanz uranium enrichment facility and consists of two deep tunnel complexes embedded in the Zagros mountain range. Experts cited by Chinese state media said the facility can withstand the most powerful US bunker-buster bombs currently in service. Western intelligence believes the site houses a substantial portion of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile, making it a high-value but high-risk target.

The threat to strike Gachin follows sustained US and Israeli attacks on other Iranian nuclear and missile sites since early 2026. The last time the US escalated strikes to this level — targeting nuclear infrastructure — Iran retaliated by striking vessels near Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan, all of which reported incoming drone and missile attacks Wednesday. The Kuwaiti military said it was confronting "hostile drone attacks" from Iran after shooting down dozens of projectiles and reporting a strike on a Kuwaiti warship.

Weapons Depletion and Market Fallout

The sustained campaign has drained US munitions stockpiles. An analysis released in May found that military contractors will need at least three years to replenish inventories of Tomahawk cruise missiles, Patriot interceptors and THAAD systems. Trump has sought to address the shortfall with a proposed $1.5 trillion defense budget for 2027, though the authorization bill remains stalled in Congress.

European aviation authorities warned carriers Tuesday to avoid the airspace of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and parts of the Gulf of Oman through at least July 29, citing "a high level of risk across the Gulf region" and the danger of "misidentification, unintended engagement and collateral effects affecting civil aircraft."

Prediction markets now reflect a decreased likelihood of the US announcing an end to the Iranian blockade by mid-August, consistent with expectations of continued or escalated conflict. If the US follows through on threats to strike power plants and bridges next week, the risk premium embedded in crude prices could widen further, with Brent potentially retesting the $100 level that would trigger demand destruction across emerging-market importers.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.