Trump pushes Kim summit this fall as arsenal tops 60 warheads

President Trump is pushing aides to arrange a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as soon as this fall, seeking to revive nuclear diplomacy as Pyongyang's arsenal grows past an estimated 60 warheads.

"It appeases yet another despotic dictator based on a misperception that a personal relationship will actually achieve U.S. foreign policy objectives," said Bruce Klingner, a former senior Central Intelligence Agency officer in the Koreas.

Trump has discussed meeting Kim during a planned trip to Asia, potentially in November when leaders gather for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, China, according to US officials. No formal preparations have begun. The push follows Trump's order to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to "substantially reduce" the annual Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises with South Korea, which began Monday and run through Aug. 27 with about 18,000 South Korean soldiers.

A summit carries high stakes for regional markets and the US-South Korea alliance. Independent arms control experts estimate North Korea may have developed 60 nuclear warheads with enough fissile material for up to 90, while Stanford University's Jeffrey Lewis puts the arsenal "probably in the low hundreds." Kim has deepened ties with Russia, sending thousands of troops to support Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, and met Chinese leader Xi Jinping in June.

Drill Cuts Rattle Seoul

Trump's outreach mirrors his first-term playbook. After his 2018 Singapore summit with Kim, Trump unilaterally suspended the US-South Korean summertime exercises, calling them "very provocative" and "tremendously expensive." The two met again in Hanoi in 2019, where Trump walked away after Kim refused to dismantle his entire nuclear program, and a last-ditch gathering at the Korean demilitarized zone that year failed to break the deadlock.

The drill reduction has rattled Seoul, a key US ally where national security is a top priority. South Korea's presidential office said it hopes the "friendly relationship" between Trump and Kim leads to "meaningful dialogue" and advances stability on the peninsula. The conservative People Power Party, the main opposition, accused President Lee Jae-myung of "turning a blind eye on the public's security concerns."

Downsizing the drills "can damage alliance coordination, slow the process of South Korea taking on greater responsibility for its own defense, and weaken deterrence against possible conflicts in Asia," said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.

Trump has also linked the decision to South Korea's refusal to join US efforts in the Strait of Hormuz, telling reporters the move stemmed from Seoul not helping pry open the shuttered waterway. He said he recently asked Lee whether South Korea would join the US in the "denuclearization" of Iran, "and they said, 'No thanks!'"

Kim's Arsenal Grows as Leverage Rises

Kim has shown little urgency to return to talks. In September 2025, he said he held "good personal memories" of Trump but suggested he could only resume talks if the US drops "its delusional obsession with denuclearization." North Korea fired two ballistic missiles into the sea earlier this month in a likely protest of the drills, and its Foreign Ministry vowed to respond with "a new level of a deterrent."

Kim Dong-yub, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, said North Korea feels less urgency to return to talks now than in 2018 but is unlikely to completely ignore Trump's overture. He predicted Pyongyang will note Trump's post and wait for further action showing the US intends to drop hostilities.

The diplomatic push comes as regional dynamics shift. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is due in Seoul this week for his first official visit in five years, and Xi plans to attend a September summit with Trump in Washington. US and foreign officials expect Kim to visit Russian President Vladimir Putin before year-end, most likely after November's US midterm elections.

For markets, the summit push cuts both ways. A thaw could ease tensions that have kept a risk premium on South Korean assets, while a weak deal that legitimizes Kim's arsenal could strain the US-South Korea alliance and complicate trilateral security cooperation with Japan. Defense contractors and South Korean equities would be the first to react to any concrete summit announcement.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.