Strategy's MSTR outperforms Bitcoin's $80,000 rally as STRC nears $100

Strategy's common stock has outpaced Bitcoin's two-week recovery, with STRC closing in on $100 as the U.S. Treasury's expanded bond buybacks weakened the dollar.

Bitcoin's recovery above $80,000 has brought Strategy's BTC treasury back into profit and lifted its stock faster than the cryptocurrency, with STRC near $100.

"The Treasury's buyback announcement has shifted the market narrative from higher yields to USD debasement — fueling a weaker dollar, stronger gold and higher breakevens," OCBC analysts said in a note.

BTC climbed 4.7% to $80,760.8 by 05:57 GMT on Tuesday, briefly touching $81,220.4, its strongest level in three months. The move followed the U.S. Treasury's decision to roughly double its bond buyback purchases to $4 billion per operation, financing the added purchases with short-term debt issuance. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs drew $1.9 billion in net inflows last week, the strongest weekly tally since October 2025, per Farside Investors data. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust alone saw net inflows exceeding $500 million on Thursday. More than $457 million in bitcoin short positions were liquidated over 24 hours as the rally accelerated, Coinglass data shows, with an additional $112.3 million in ether shorts wiped out.

All eyes now turn to Wednesday's July PCE inflation print and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's keynote at Jackson Hole. Consensus expects a 0.1% monthly increase, with year-on-year inflation cooling to 3.6% from 3.7% in June. A softer reading could extend the rally, while a firmer print may support Treasury yields and the dollar, potentially stalling Bitcoin's advance. For Strategy, the stakes are direct: its treasury holdings mean every dollar of Bitcoin appreciation flows through to its equity valuation.

Treasury Buybacks Reshape the Macro Backdrop

The Treasury's move to at least double its buyback purchases to $4 billion per operation — financed by more short-term debt issuance — has revived talk of yield curve control among crypto commentators. The intervention triggered a record $3.1 billion in crypto short liquidations over two days last week, Coinglass data shows. Bitcoin's 38% rebound from its late-June low near $58,000 has now reclaimed the 50-week exponential moving average at $77,752, a level that had capped rallies since November 2025. The Treasury has also suggested it could tap its nearly $1 trillion General Account to fund the buybacks, adding to concerns about dollar debasement.

Strategy's Leverage to Bitcoin

Strategy raised $2 billion through MSTR share sales last week, adding to its already substantial BTC treasury. The company's stock has risen faster than Bitcoin itself during the recovery, with STRC — its new class of preferred stock — closing in on $100. Bitcoin's August performance, up 22% month-to-date, marks its best August since 2017, per CoinGlass data. Short-term holder cost basis sits at $68,700, while new money's breakeven is at $73,000, CryptoQuant data shows — levels that now serve as support if the rally stalls. June saw unprecedented ETF outflows exceeding $4.5 billion, but August inflows have already reached $2.38 billion, a new year-to-date record.

The macro backdrop for Bitcoin has shifted decisively in recent weeks, with the Treasury's intervention effectively capping long-term yields and pressuring the dollar. For Strategy, this creates a favorable environment for continued stock appreciation, though the concentration risk of a BTC-linked equity remains. The key question is whether the PCE print and Warsh's Jackson Hole remarks sustain the current trajectory or introduce new headwinds.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.