Strategy jumps 5% as analyst defends model amid 50% Bitcoin rout

Strategy Inc. is weathering the 50% Bitcoin drawdown without damage, raising over $100 million daily while maintaining all dividends.

Strategy Inc. rose 5% on Tuesday after analyst Adam Livingston argued the company's capital-raising model has weathered Bitcoin's 50% decline without damage.

"Strategy is raising over $100 million per day on average while keeping all dividends paid — not a dent or a scratch," Livingston said.

The company holds 843,775 Bitcoin in its treasury, acquired at an average price of $75,476 per coin, according to public filings. It added 171,275 BTC so far in 2026, compared with 226,100 BTC in all of last year. Last week, Strategy sold 3,588 BTC for roughly $216 million, or about $60,000 per coin, as part of a Bitcoin monetization program that allows the firm to sell up to $1.25 billion in holdings. The sale price was roughly 20% below the company's average acquisition cost.

The defense comes as prediction markets assign just 10% odds that Strategy will reach 1 million Bitcoin by year-end, down from 65% in April. The company needs 156,225 additional BTC to hit that milestone, a pace that would require sustained capital access as Bitcoin trades roughly 50% below its peak.

Odds of 1 Million BTC Target Slump

Polygon-based prediction markets now see only a 10% probability of Strategy holding 1 million Bitcoin by Dec. 31, down from 26% a month ago and a peak of 65% in April, according to on-chain data. The company currently holds 843,775 BTC and would need to add 156,225 coins in the remaining months of the year to reach the milestone that founder Michael Saylor has publicly targeted.

Schiff Warns of More Sales Ahead

Longtime Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff said Strategy has "fundamentally changed its operating model" and would need to sell "a lot more" of its BTC holdings to preserve dollar reserves during the ongoing slump. Strategy's monetization program lets the company sell Bitcoin to raise cash for reserves, pay preferred dividends and interest on debt, and support share repurchases. The company sold 32 BTC last month, its first sale in years, which contributed to a broader cryptocurrency price decline.

For Strategy, the path to 1 million Bitcoin now depends on either a sustained capital-markets reopening or a Bitcoin price recovery that reduces the gap between its average cost and market price. The next major test will come when the company reports quarterly earnings, where investors will scrutinize the pace of BTC acquisitions and any further monetization activity.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.