SpaceX stock breaks four-week losing streak as lockup pressure eases

SpaceX stock is ending a four-week losing streak, trading near $125 after a 9.4 percent jump as lockup pressure eases.

SpaceX stock is ending a four-week losing streak, trading near $125 after a 9.4 percent jump as pressure from a record share unlock eases.

"My guess is that banks own these calls as a hedge, maybe against some kind of structured product or some other short exposure they have," Brent Kochuba, founder of options analytics firm SpotGamma, said of a roughly $20 million position in out-of-the-money SPCX calls.

The rebound follows a correction that erased as much as 52 percent from the $225.64 post-IPO peak reached in June, when SpaceX priced 555 million shares at $135 in the largest initial public offering in history, raising $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation. Roughly 912 million shares became eligible to trade on Aug. 6 under a tiered lockup release, tripling the public float to more than 12 percent of the company.

The move matters because SpaceX, trading at about 36 times projected 2026 revenue, is the most closely watched new listing on the Nasdaq. Its first public earnings report beat revenue estimates with Q2 sales near $6.88 billion, but the stock still faces a second lockup tranche in December and Musk's roughly 6.4 billion shares locked until June 2027.

The stock's recovery comes as the options market prices a 14 percent earnings-day swing, with implied volatility at 133, higher than nearly every S&P 500 name except SanDisk. A mystery buyer holds nearly $20 million in $330-strike calls expiring Aug. 7, a position that would require the stock to nearly triple in four trading days from around $119.59.

Jay Pestrichelli of Tidal Financial Group, which manages roughly $60 billion, argued the calls could turn profitable on a much smaller rally, around $215 by Wednesday morning, with the right mix of price movement and volatility expansion. "It's not a speculative moon shot, you don't buy the highest strike in the chain unless you're trying to reduce the cost of a hedge," he said.

Lockup Overhang Persists

SpaceX's tiered release structure differs sharply from the standard 180-day lockup most IPOs impose. The first tranche, which took effect Aug. 6, allows insiders to sell up to 20 percent of eligible shares, with an additional 10 percent potentially unlocking if the stock stays consistently above $175. The main 180-day lockup runs through Dec. 8, 2026, while Musk's roughly 6.4 billion shares remain restricted until June 12, 2027.

Historical precedent suggests lockup expirations often trigger price declines, with academic research showing stocks typically drop 1 percent to 3 percent when lockup periods end, with trading volume surging 38 percent to 40 percent above normal levels. The scale of SpaceX's unlock, 912 million shares, is exceptionally large, raising questions about market absorption capacity.

Earnings Beat, But Costs Soar

SpaceX delivered a blockbuster revenue beat in its first public earnings report on Aug. 4, with Q2 revenue near $6.88 billion against expectations, but shares cratered 12 percent on soaring AI costs. The company reported a loss of $0.23 per share and adjusted EBITDA around $2.1 billion, with full-year 2026 estimates near $39 billion in revenue and $17.3 billion in EBITDA.

The stock's long-term trajectory will depend on SpaceX's ability to translate its launch leadership, Starlink satellite internet growth, and government contracts into sustained earnings. With a market cap of $1.66 trillion, the company ranks among the world's most valuable, and its path forward hinges on execution across its core businesses.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.