Silver tops $66 as soft US data cools Fed hike bets

Silver climbed above $66 an ounce on the COMEX, up 1.47 percent, as weaker US economic data cooled expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike.

Weaker-than-expected US inflation and consumption data led the market to lower its expectations for a September rate hike, Everbright Futures said.

The most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 2.48 percent to 16,143 yuan a kilogram, while silver T+D rose 2.89 percent to 16,065 yuan a kilogram. SMM 1# silver spot averaged 16,021 yuan a kilogram, up 3.21 percent from the prior session. The US dollar index pulled back to around 99.5, and the precious metals sector in A-shares rose 3.33 percent, led by Hunan Silver, which jumped 6.63 percent.

The rally extends a precious-metals advance that pushed COMEX gold up 0.48 percent to $4,458.7 an ounce. UBS strategists expect falling real interest rates, a weaker dollar, and continued central-bank buying to drive gold toward $5,000 an ounce in the first half of next year. Citadel Securities' Scott Rubner, recommending structured gold positions for the first time since 2026, said the market was forming one of the most attractive upside opportunities in months.

Fed Divisions Keep Rate Path Uncertain

Divisions within the Fed remain apparent, with Richmond Fed President Barkin supporting unchanged rates while Cleveland Fed President Hammack reiterated a rate-hike stance, Everbright Futures noted. The market is watching for comments from Fed Chair Walsh at the Jackson Hole symposium at month-end, which could provide guidance for the September policy meeting.

Central-Bank Buying Underpins Precious Metals

Goldman Sachs estimated central banks purchased 81 metric tons of gold in May, with the three-month average at 67 metric tons, well above the pre-2022 average of 17 metric tons. The bank forecast average monthly purchases of 50 metric tons this year and 40 metric tons next year. A Reuters poll of 29 analysts and traders put the median 2026 gold forecast at $4,509 an ounce.

For investors, the silver breakout signals strengthening momentum across the precious-metals complex as rate-hike expectations recede. The Jackson Hole symposium and upcoming US inflation data will determine whether the rally extends, with silver's next directional move tied to the dollar's trajectory.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.