Saudi vessel attack in Bab el-Mandeb kills 3, threatens oil shipping

An attack on a Saudi vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait killed at least three people Monday, the latest escalation in a Houthi campaign that has cut tanker traffic through a waterway carrying about 12 percent of global trade and roughly a quarter of container shipments.

"The escalation is directly connected to regional developments," Afrah Nasser, a Yemen researcher at the nonprofit DAWN, wrote in an analysis, describing how Iran is scaling up pressure on the United States through its close ally.

The Iranian Student News Agency, citing Xinhua, reported the attack on the Saudi vessel. It follows a Houthi drone strike on Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, where officials confirmed a fire was extinguished without casualties, and a blockade the rebels announced on Saudi-linked vessels leaving the strait. Shipping data from Kpler show fewer tankers crossing the waterway since the attacks began, with 25 vessels transiting Bab el-Mandeb on Monday against a 10-day average of 24.

The strike raises the risk of a simultaneous disruption to two of the world's most important oil routes, since traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has already fallen to six vessels Monday from a 10-day average of 11, according to Kpler, as hopes fade for a U.S.-Iran peace deal. With both chokepoints vulnerable, Gulf exporters face limited alternatives: pipelines across the Arabian Peninsula, Egypt's Suez Canal, or a longer voyage around South Africa's Cape of Good Hope.

Hormuz Traffic Slips to Six Vessels

The Bab el-Mandeb has served as an alternative route for Gulf oil exports since the Strait of Hormuz came under threat, allowing more tankers from Saudi ports to reach international markets. Monday's attack threatens to close that outlet just as the Hormuz route dries up. Four commodity vessels, including two empty oil product tankers, entered the waterway Monday, while two vessels — a small tanker laden with liquefied petroleum gas and another carrying residual fuels — exited, Kpler data showed. In pre-war days, about 130 to 140 ships typically transited the strait.

The renewed attacks have heightened concerns about another disruption to global maritime trade at a time when Iran's conflict with the United States has already threatened shipping through Hormuz. In Hormuz, even sporadic attacks have been enough to discourage vessels by raising security risks and insurance costs. Analysts warn that a similar situation in Bab el-Mandeb could disrupt both routes simultaneously, adding pressure on global trade and energy supplies.

Blockade Rooted in Yemen's Civil War

Yemen's civil war began in 2014 after Houthi forces seized Sanaa and large parts of northern Yemen, forcing the internationally recognized government into exile. Saudi Arabia subsequently led an international coalition against the rebels and imposed an air and sea blockade on Houthi-controlled areas, though restrictions have eased in recent years. The Houthis say their attempt to restrict Saudi-linked shipping through Bab el-Mandeb is meant to pressure Riyadh into ending that blockade.

The latest attacks, including one in northeastern Yemen on Friday, came weeks after the rebels announced the blockade. A Houthi attack on Thursday injured 11 civilians, including a 4-year-old child, according to the Saudi military, while separate attacks on Saudi-backed positions in eastern Yemen killed at least 17 soldiers, according to SABA, a news agency affiliated with Yemen's internationally recognized government. Houthi spokesman Nasruddin Amer said on X on Friday that the group would continue targeting Saudi military buildups to force Riyadh to lift its blockade.

Three Houthi officials told The Associated Press in July that the group had spent months preparing plans to disrupt shipping through Bab el-Mandeb. Although the Houthis do not control the coastline directly bordering the strait, they hold territory less than 100 kilometers away.

Ahmed Nagi, a senior Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group, said the strategy also serves Iran's interests as the United States continues its military campaign against the Houthis. "From Iran's perspective, opening additional pressure points across the region gives it more leverage," Nagi told the AP last month. "The Houthis provide Tehran with influence over one of the world's most important maritime choke-points."

The last time shipping through a major Gulf chokepoint came under sustained attack, insurance premiums on tanker voyages spiked and crude prices jumped as traders priced in supply risk. With the June peace deal between the U.S. and Iran broken down and President Donald Trump swinging between threats of escalation and assertions that a deal is close, the risk premium on Gulf oil is likely to stay elevated. If the Bab el-Mandeb blockade persists alongside the Hormuz slowdown, crude prices could climb further as exporters scramble for longer, costlier routes to market.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.