Key Takeaways:
Karl Rove's seven-step playbook for the 2026 midterms confronts a president whose approval rating has sunk to 39 percent — and whose strongest issue, immigration, still draws majority disapproval.
Karl Rove outlined seven steps for Republicans to win the 2026 midterms, warning that Trump's 39 percent approval rating demands a shift from "communist" rhetoric to concrete policy. The former Bush strategist wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed that Trump's Las Vegas speech last week "might have cheered his true believers but didn't gain a single vote."
Rove, who served as senior adviser and deputy chief of staff for President George W. Bush, said the president's framing of Democrats as "communists" who would bring "death, squalor, poverty" fails to convert the swing voters who delivered his 2024 victory. He estimated that roughly 14 to 15 percent of voters were reluctant Trump supporters — people who chose him over four more years of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, not out of adoration.
The RealClearPolitics average puts Trump's overall approval at 39 percent, with inflation handling at 31 percent, Iran at 36 percent, Russia-Ukraine at 37 percent, and the economy at 37 percent. Only immigration (44 percent) and crime (45 percent) exceed his overall number — and even those draw majority disapproval. An Economist/YouGov poll released Aug. 11 found approval at 33 percent, down three points from the prior week, with 56 percent of Americans saying the economy is getting worse and just 14 percent saying conditions are improving.
The stakes are concrete. Rove's analysis suggests that losing the reluctant 2024 Trump voters in November could flip control of the House and Senate, reshaping the fiscal and regulatory agenda for the next two years. Democratic primary victories by far-left candidates — Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, Troy Jackson in Maine, Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota — give Republicans openings, but only if they execute the right strategy.
Rove's Seven Steps
Rove's playbook centers on forcing Democratic candidates to own their most extreme positions rather than labeling them from the outside. He argues Republicans should use a candidate's own words and policies — citing the 2024 "they/them" ad featuring Kamala Harris endorsing transgender surgery for convicts — and should press Democrats to disavow past positions, asking when and why they changed their minds.
On the Democratic Socialists of America, Rove said Republicans must explain why the DSA's agenda won't work, noting the group doesn't want Americans to have a landlord or mortgage, which would mean government-assigned housing and no wealth accumulation through homeownership. He also urged Republicans to force moderate Democrats to disavow DSA policies like abolishing ICE, defunding the police, or closing prisons — a move that could suppress left-wing turnout.
The final step: Republicans can't run on past performance. Rove noted Trump's hour-plus Las Vegas speech devoted just 39 seconds to a new healthcare plan and one minute to the SAVE Act. GOP candidates need to offer concrete plans for the next year, not just defense of the last one.
The historical precedent is instructive. Harry S. Truman holds the record for the lowest individual approval rating in a single poll at 22 percent in February 1952 — yet the political landscape today differs in one key respect: Trump's Republican base remains loyal, with 76 to 80 percent of self-identified Republicans approving of his job performance. The question is whether that floor is enough to offset the erosion among independents and reluctant supporters.
Trump dismissed the polling as "fake polls," but Rove noted his own pollsters likely see similar results. With the midterms roughly three months away, the gap between the president's messaging and the data could determine which party controls Congress — and with it, the direction of fiscal policy, trade, and regulation through 2028.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
