Key Takeaways:
Mastercard's integration of the XRP Ledger for card settlement has renewed projections that XRP could facilitate $235 trillion in future payment volumes, though the token's price has yet to reflect the institutional momentum.
Mastercard added the XRP Ledger to its settlement network in June, joining seven other blockchains, as Ripple pushes deeper into institutional payments infrastructure.
"Mastercard's selection of the XRP Ledger signals that major payment networks see real utility in blockchain-based settlement," Jack McDonald, SVP at Ripple, told Grayscale Research in a recent interview.
The integration builds on Ripple's broader institutional push. The company now holds more than 60 regulatory licenses worldwide, has acquired Standard Custody & Trust Company and Hidden Road, and processes roughly $16 trillion annually across its payment and clearing businesses. Tokenized real-world assets on the XRP Ledger have climbed 388% this year to $4.4 billion, according to DefiLlama data.
The $235 trillion projection assumes XRP captures a meaningful share of global cross-border payment flows, which SWIFT currently dominates at roughly $150 trillion annually. Ripple's partnerships with Mastercard, JPMorgan, Convera, Deutsche Bank and Societe Generale — all announced this year — suggest the infrastructure is being built, but the token's price has fallen 43% year-to-date to $1.05 as most institutional deals settle in Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin rather than XRP directly.
Why Institutions Are Using RLUSD Instead of XRP
Ripple's biggest deals this year, including a Convera partnership covering $190 billion in annual payment flows, the Deutsche Bank integration and the Societe Generale relationship, all settled in RLUSD, the company's dollar-backed stablecoin. Institutions get the XRP Ledger's speed without holding an asset whose price swings 40% in a year.
That structural choice has created a tension at the heart of the XRP investment thesis. The ledger's tokenized assets grew nearly fivefold this year while the XRP price fell 38%. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, whose firm runs the largest U.S. spot XRP ETF, recently named Hyperliquid and Robinhood as his picks to lead the next crypto cycle — not XRP — because those protocols return revenue to token holders.
"The XRP Ledger keeps winning the business, but the token just doesn't get a cut of it," Hougan wrote in a market memo.
What the $235 Trillion Bet Requires
For XRP to capture $235 trillion in payment volumes, institutions would need to settle transactions using the token itself rather than RLUSD. That would require a shift in how Ripple's partners use the ledger — and a level of price stability that XRP has not demonstrated.
Ripple is betting on regulatory clarity to bridge that gap. The CLARITY Act, which would codify XRP's commodity status into federal law, awaits a Senate vote before the August 7 recess. President Trump agreed to ethics rules that stalled the bill for months, though Democrats have rejected the current enforcement proposal.
Beyond the legislation, Ripple has a package of institutional upgrades heading toward a validator vote in the coming weeks. The company also continues expanding RLUSD support across multiple blockchain networks, adding partnerships with financial institutions and infrastructure providers.
Standard Chartered has projected XRP could reach $28 by 2030, a target that would turn a $1,000 investment into roughly $25,700. But that forecast depends on the token capturing the payment volumes that are currently routing through RLUSD.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
