JPMorgan cut its Trip.com price target to HKD560 from HKD600 while maintaining an Overweight rating, arguing the anti-monopoly rectification is a cyclical rather than structural headwind. The broker lowered 3Q26 and 4Q26 revenue forecasts by 6% and 4% on macro weakness.
JPMorgan cut its Trip.com target to HKD560 from HKD600, saying post-fine weakness is cyclical, not structural damage from China's antitrust action.
"The market may tend to interpret TRIP.COM-S' weak performance in 2H26 as structural damage caused by anti-monopoly rectification," the bank said. JPMorgan said the weakness is mainly cyclical, and that regulation changes the commercial form of monetization rather than damaging profitability. It recommended investors accumulate the stock.
The new H-share target of HKD560 implies about 55% upside from Monday's close of HKD361.6. JPMorgan also cut its US-listed shares target to USD72 from USD75. The broker lowered 3Q26 and 4Q26 revenue forecasts by 6% and 4%, respectively, citing a weak macro environment. Both ratings remain at Overweight.
The anti-monopoly fine is a known, measurable and largely one-off impact, JPMorgan said, while the effect of the company's business transformation is also temporary. Shares of Trip.com rose as much as 4% Tuesday, with the stock last trading at HKD361.6, up 3.55%. About 592,600 shares changed hands, with short selling accounting for HKD457.9 million, or 25.3% of turnover.
China's State Administration for Market Regulation on July 25 fined Trip.com RMB3.52 billion (USD519 million), or 7.5% of its 2025 China sales, for using exclusive arrangements with hotels that restricted competition. The regulator found Trip.com used traffic-allocation mechanisms, platform rules and technical measures to prevent hotels from setting independent prices across platforms. The company was also ordered to refund RMB122 million in hotel deposits and forfeit RMB1.66 billion in gains. Trip.com said it accepts the decision and will implement rectification measures.
The JPMorgan call provides a counterweight to concerns that regulatory action could permanently alter Trip.com's business model, which spans brands including Ctrip, Skyscanner and Qunar. Rivals such as Meituan and Alibaba's Fliggy could benefit if hotels gain more pricing flexibility, though JPMorgan's thesis suggests the impact on Trip.com's profitability will be temporary.
The stock has fallen about 15% since the SAMR investigation was announced in January, underperforming the Hang Seng Index, which declined roughly 5% over the same period. JPMorgan's maintained Overweight rating stands in contrast to potential concerns about regulatory overhang, with the bank viewing the fine as a clearing event that removes uncertainty.
Investors will watch third-quarter earnings in November for evidence of whether the cyclical rebound thesis holds.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
