HYPE faces liquidation cascade risk below $52 as range breaks

HYPE fell 9.1% in a week to near $53.80, with a liquidation heatmap flagging cascade risk below the $52 zone after a two-month range broke.

Analyst Base Case D said the heatmap showed a magnetic zone of long liquidations at $52.38, where a minor drop could force positions to close and add to selling pressure in the short term.

Whales have been unstaking HYPE and depositing tokens to centralized exchanges, while the token is down almost 20% over the past 30 days. The 4-hour chart shows the two-month range low at $53.3 has been breached, with Fibonacci retracement levels pointing to a possible drop toward $32-$42.

A deeper retracement toward $32 cannot be ruled out, though a rebound from the $50-$51 support, reinforced by the 200-day EMA near $50.69, could push HYPE toward $63-$64 — a 25% upside — before a decisive close above that level opens a path back to the record high near $77.

Liquidation heatmap points to a dip-then-rebound path

Binance's one-week HYPE/USDT liquidation heatmap, per CoinGlass, shows the nearest downside liquidity concentrated around $52.70-$53.00, a cluster that could attract price lower in the short term. Liquidity thins below roughly $52.50, so the heatmap supports an initial downside sweep more clearly than a sustained collapse toward $50 or lower. Larger short-liquidation concentrations sit above the current price, with visible upside clusters near $55, $56.10, $58.70-$59 and, most notably, around $60.50-$60.80 — roughly $40 million in cumulative short liquidations. These levels could act as price magnets if HYPE rebounds from the $51.50-$53 support region.

Technicals keep a 25% rebound scenario alive

The projected decline toward $50-$51 would bring HYPE to the lower trendline of a broader bull flag developing since its June peak. The pattern formed after HYPE rallied sharply from around $39 in May to nearly $77 in June, creating the flagpole, with price since correcting between two descending, roughly parallel trendlines. A rebound from the lower boundary, reinforced by the 200-day EMA near $50.69, could push HYPE toward the flag's upper trendline around $63-$64, aligning with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement at approximately $63.63. A decisive daily close above that resistance would confirm the bull flag breakout, potentially sending HYPE back toward its record high near $77 — gains of roughly 80% from current levels. Conversely, a close below $50 would invalidate the bullish outlook, exposing the $48.70 support level.

The token's daily RSI reading near 34, just four points above the oversold threshold, leaves room for additional declines before any sustained recovery. With Bitcoin's broader market tone bearish and institutional selling pressure persisting, HYPE's path hinges on whether the $50-$51 zone holds — a level that separates a 25% rebound from a slide toward $32.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.