Key Takeaways:
- HSBC cut Macau's 2026 GGR growth forecast to 4% from 8%.
- Target prices for six casino operators were slashed by 6% to 30%.
- June GGR missed expectations due to the World Cup and weak macro economy.
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HSBC slashes Macau GGR forecast to 4%, cuts casino targets 6-30%
HSBC Global Investment Research cut Macau's 2026 GGR growth forecast to 4% from 8%, citing a weak June that missed market expectations.
"Macau's June GGR missed market expectations due to factors including the World Cup, weak macro economy, the APEC ministerial meeting and potential regulatory controls," HSBC Global Investment Research analysts said in a note.
The broker lowered its second-half 2026 GGR growth estimate to 1% year-over-year and cut target prices for six Macau casino operators by 6% to 30%. It maintained Buy ratings on Sands China Ltd. (01928.HK), Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd. (00027.HK) and MGM China Holdings Ltd. (02282.HK), while assigning Hold ratings to Wynn Macau Ltd. (01128.HK), Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd. (MLCO.US) and SJM Holdings Ltd. (00880.HK).
The target price cuts reflect weaker near-term revenue expectations for the sector. HSBC expects GGR to remain sluggish until the World Cup ends in late July, with demand recovering as summer crowds gather and weather conditions improve.
The revision comes as China's economy posted its slowest quarterly growth since 2022, with investment slumping and fanning calls for stimulus. The macro weakness compounds headwinds specific to Macau, including the World Cup diverting travel spending and the APEC ministerial meeting at end-June disrupting visitation patterns.
HSBC's forecast now implies second-half GGR growth of just 1% year-over-year, a sharp deceleration from the previous estimate. The broker cited potential regulatory controls as an additional risk factor for the sector.
Among the six operators, Sands China, Galaxy Entertainment and MGM China retained Buy ratings, signaling selective optimism on their ability to capture summer recovery. Wynn Macau, Melco Resorts and SJM Holdings were kept at Hold, reflecting a more cautious view on their recovery trajectories.
The downgrade signals that Macau's gaming recovery faces headwinds beyond seasonal factors, with China's macro weakness adding structural pressure. Investors will watch July and August GGR data for signs of the summer recovery HSBC expects.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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