Key Takeaways:
Goldman Sachs sees three simultaneous chokepoint crises with no modern precedent, projecting Brent crude could average $120 a barrel in the fourth quarter.
Goldman Sachs analyst Samantha Dart warned August 3 that simultaneous chokepoint disruptions across Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Black Sea have no modern precedent, projecting Brent at $120 in Q4.
"This is unprecedented. And it really reminds us that even though we're so used to thinking of commodities as these global markets, your supply side can be incredibly geographically concentrated," Dart, Co-Head of Global Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, said on Bloomberg.
Persian Gulf exports reversed from 80 percent of normal flows back to 40 percent after the latest escalation, Dart said. The EIA's May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook assessed production shut-ins averaged 10.5 million barrels per day in April, peaking near 10.8 million b/d in May, with Brent averaging $117 in April and touching $138.21 on April 7. The benchmark's 2026 range spans $61.08 to $138.21, versus a $22.71 full-year range in 2025.
The base case assumes Persian Gulf production normalizes by early Q4, putting Brent at roughly $80 in Q4 and $70 next year. The worst case — gradual improvement through 2026 — implies $120 in Q4 and an average near $100 next year. With global inventories depleted, the second recovery will be slower than the first.
Dart flagged diesel and heating oil as the main upside risk heading into colder months, where seasonal demand spikes could compound supply cuts. Henry Hub natural gas already spiked to $30.72 per MMBtu on January 23, 2026, well above the $9.86 January 2025 peak, illustrating how quickly winter demand can overwhelm a tight supply picture. The EIA estimated more than 2,020 Bcf of natural gas was withdrawn from storage over the November-March heating season, 4 percent more than the five-year average.
The vulnerability window is specific: refined products face a double squeeze. Supply through the three constrained chokepoints feeds directly into diesel and heating oil inventories, while winter demand for those products typically peaks between December and February in the Northern Hemisphere. A prolonged disruption into that window would hit consumers through higher heating bills and trucking costs.
The key variable is the speed of geopolitical resolution. A durable de-escalation across all three chokepoints would let rising U.S. production and potential OPEC expansion pull prices back toward the base case. A drawn-out standoff pushes the curve toward the worst case, with heating fuels layered on top. OPEC+ approved a September quota increase of about 188,000 barrels per day and plans to hold quotas steady from October through January 2027, though conflict-related disruptions have kept several members from pumping to full targets.
The market has already tested both ends of the range in 2026. After a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran in April, Goldman trimmed its Q2 Brent forecast to $90 from $99, but the bank kept Q4 at $80 — before the latest escalation reversed the recovery. JPMorgan estimates each month of disruption adds $7 to $8 per barrel to Brent, meaning a three-month disruption could lift the monthly average to roughly $114.
The April ceasefire episode offers a template for how quickly the market can reprice. Brent fell more than 11 percent in the week after the truce was announced, only to rebound as doubts emerged about whether the strait would fully reopen. That pattern — sharp selloffs on diplomatic headlines followed by equally sharp reversals — is likely to persist until a verifiable, durable agreement restores safe passage through all three chokepoints.
Any headline suggesting fresh flow interruptions could reignite the volatility that defined the first half of the year, with heating fuels the most exposed segment heading into winter.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
