Goldman reiterates Xiaomi buy with HK$40 target on SkyNomad launch

Goldman Sachs reiterated its Buy rating on Xiaomi Corp. with a HK$40 price target, citing the SkyNomad extended-range electric SUV filing as a catalyst that could reverse the stock's narrative and financial trajectory.

"SkyNomad opens a rich catalyst period in the third quarter and offers a potential turnaround in both narrative and financial terms," Goldman Sachs said in a July 13 report. The bank noted the new series, filed with China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, complements Xiaomi's existing SU7 sedan and YU7 crossover by targeting family and outdoor use cases.

Goldman forecasts 110,000 SkyNomad deliveries in 2026 and 240,000 in 2027, with a bull case of about 500,000 units in 2027. The flagship N90 Max packs a 76-kilowatt-hour ternary lithium battery from CALB, delivering 370 kilometers of pure-electric range under China's CLTC test cycle, paired with a 1.5-liter turbocharged range extender from Harbin Dongan that produces 112 kilowatts. The N90 measures 5,285 millimeters long with a 3,080-millimeter wheelbase and a curb weight of 2,800 kilograms, placing it directly against the Li Auto L9 and Aito M9. Pricing starts around 200,000 yuan ($29,000), undercutting both rivals by more than 50,000 yuan.

Xiaomi delivered 185,055 vehicles in the first half of 2026, about 34 percent of its 550,000-unit annual target. The SU7 sedan saw deliveries fall 48 percent year-on-year to 80,496 units, while the YU7 crossover contributed 104,559 units. The SkyNomad, expected to launch by late August with more than 10,000 units reportedly built for immediate delivery, is central to closing the gap. The stock has fallen 34 percent year-on-year, and the new model line represents one of the company's most significant second-half catalysts.

The bank also said Xiaomi's AI progress is underestimated. Its large language model MiMo now runs 6 trillion to 7 trillion daily tokens, and the V2.5-Pro-UltraSpeed version is beginning to demonstrate pricing power. The SkyNomad's cabin features a reconfigurable interior with rotating front seats, a sliding center armrest that converts into a bar counter, and zero-gravity second-row seats. The N90 Max Camping Edition adds a pop-up roof, rooftop bed platform, and side tent interface, classified by MIIT as a "cultural life service vehicle."

The EREV segment Xiaomi is entering faces headwinds. Sales of extended-range SUVs in China fell 25 percent to 28 percent year-on-year in May 2026, with the segment's share of new-energy vehicle sales dropping to 7 percent, as long-range battery-electric vehicles with 600 to 700 kilometers of CLTC range erode the technology's core advantage. Xiaomi is betting that a camping-and-road-trip use case, combined with aggressive pricing, can sustain demand even as the general range-anxiety rationale for EREVs weakens.

The HK$40 target implies meaningful upside from current levels. Investors will watch the SkyNomad's technology launch event expected at the end of July and the market launch in late August for delivery numbers that will determine whether Goldman's 110,000-unit 2026 forecast is achievable.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.