Gold forecast: RBC sees $5,250 average in 2027 as buyers return

Gold traded at $4,351.05 an ounce at 11:56 BST on Aug. 14, up 7.34% over one month, as RBC forecast an average $5,250 in 2027.

RBC's Gold Standard comparable tables assume an average $4,732 an ounce for 2026, rising to $5,250 in 2027 and $5,500 in 2028, with a long-term assumption of $4,000, the bank said. These are annual averages used in company valuation work, not year-end targets, so gold would not need to finish either year at precisely those levels.

From current spot, the 2027 average is roughly 21% higher and the 2028 assumption about 26% higher. Gold remains 6.43% lower over three months and 13.48% lower over six months, yet 30.65% above its level a year earlier, a pullback that followed a run to record highs in late 2025.

JPMorgan's volatility research supplies the market mechanism behind the upside case, pointing to central-bank buying and returning retail demand as gold holds a floor near $4,000.

JPMorgan sees buyers returning above $4,000

"The fundamental view remains on the upside in the long term, as we continue to see strong inflows from central banks with accelerated buying on the dip," JPMorgan said. World Gold Council data show reported central-bank reserves rising by a net 41 tonnes in May, extending a multi-year accumulation streak that has underpinned the metal's advance.

JPMorgan also sees a change in investor behavior after July's narrow trading range. "As gold prices are finding the floor at 4,000 and trading within a tight 5% range over the whole of July, the first signs of buyers winning over sellers are starting to show," it said.

Retail demand is part of that turn. "We are starting to see retail investors warming up to gold again," JPMorgan said, pointing to renewed call-option interest in the GLD exchange-traded fund, the largest physically backed gold ETF.

RBC's $5,500 peak vs a $4,000 floor

The two banks are not making identical calls. RBC supplies a multi-year price deck, while JPMorgan identifies positioning and volatility signals around a $4,000 support area.

Together they describe a bullish medium-term case with real drawdown risk: the long-run floor is well below RBC's projected 2028 peak, but central-bank buying and returning investor demand can keep the recovery alive before that normalisation arrives. For investors, the gap between the $4,000 long-run assumption and the $5,500 2028 peak frames the trade — a metal that can rally roughly 26% from current levels over two years, yet carries a floor that sits about 8% below spot.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.