Daiwa initiated coverage on MINIMAX-W (00100.HK) with a Buy rating and HKD530 target price, implying roughly 53 percent upside from the current HKD346.2 level. The broker cited the company's competitive AI model capabilities and cost efficiency, forecasting 180 percent total revenue CAGR for 2025-29.
Daiwa initiated coverage on MINIMAX-W (00100.HK) with a Buy rating and HKD530 target price, implying roughly 53 percent upside from the current HKD346.2 level.
Daiwa said the stock's more than 70 percent decline from its March peak of HKD1,238 has been overdone relative to the company's fundamentals and growth outlook, making the recent weakness an attractive entry point. The broker cited MINIMAX-W's steady narrowing of the capability gap with leading Western model developers while maintaining a strong cost-efficiency advantage.
Daiwa forecast the company's total revenue CAGR for 2025-29 at 180 percent, with open platform and AI enterprise services revenue growing at a 232 percent CAGR over the same period, faster than the 138 percent CAGR for AI-native products. The broker expects profit margins to improve from 2026 to 2028 on operating leverage from accelerated commercialization. Despite sharply lower R&D spending and fewer resources, MINIMAX-W's flagship M3 model ranks competitively in global benchmark tests, highlighting the company's strengths in model development and execution.
Shares of MINIMAX-W opened 3 percent higher today and last traded at HKD346.2, up 5.55 percent, with turnover of HKD1.885 billion. Short selling data showed $312.16 million in short positions, a ratio of 9.358 percent. The stock's inclusion in Morgan Stanley's China-HK Focus List and Daiwa's initiation reflect growing analyst confidence in China's AI large-model commercialization plays, potentially attracting institutional inflows to the sector.
Daiwa's differentiated value-for-money thesis puts MINIMAX-W in a position to capture growing AI demand, particularly from cost-sensitive enterprises and developers. The company is one of the few listed pure-play AI large model companies benefiting from China's AI commercialization trend, a segment that has drawn increasing attention from global investors as Chinese AI models close the gap with Western counterparts.
The HKD530 target price represents a substantial re-rating from current levels. Daiwa believes upside drivers over the next 12 months should support the valuation re-rating, including continued model capability improvements and accelerated commercialization progress. The broker's initiation follows MINIMAX-W's recent addition to Morgan Stanley's China-HK Focus List, which triggered a more than 6 percent jump in the stock.
The initiation comes as competition in China's AI large-model space intensifies, with major internet companies including Goldman Sachs-covered names like MEITUAN-W investing heavily in AI infrastructure. MINIMAX-W's cost-efficient approach differentiates it from larger competitors with deeper resources, offering a value proposition that Daiwa believes resonates with enterprises seeking affordable AI solutions.
The Buy initiation and HKD530 target give MINIMAX-W holders a clear directional signal from a bulge-bracket broker, with the stock trading at roughly 65 percent of the target. Investors will watch for continued benchmark improvements from the M3 model and the pace of enterprise adoption as key drivers over the next 12 months.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
