Key Takeaways:
Compass International Holdings data shows pre-marketed homes sold for 4.6% more than direct-to-MLS listings, as the brokerage's chief executive declared the US housing market is turning the corner.
Compass International Holdings Chief Executive Officer Robert Reffkin said the US housing market is "definitively" turning the corner, as new data from the brokerage showed its pre-marketed listings commanded a 4.6% price premium over homes listed directly on the multiple listing service.
"The data is consistent: Giving homeowners marketing strategies to build interest in their home and refine the price before listing on the MLS and portals leads to a higher sale price," Compass Chief Data Officer Dave Crosby said in a statement. "It's real money."
The 4.6% premium — up from 2.9% in a prior study covering 2024 data — was based on an analysis of more than 70,000 closed Compass transactions during the 12 months ending March 31. Pre-marketed homes also went under contract 34% faster and were 29% less likely to receive a price cut, the brokerage said. At the US median home price of $430,000, the premium equates to about $19,780.
The findings bolster Compass's push for a phased marketing approach — Private Exclusive, Coming Soon, then MLS — as the brokerage competes for listings in a market where existing-home sales have been constrained by the mortgage rate lock-in effect. First American Deputy Chief Economist Odeta Kushi said in a separate report this month that the lock-in effect is "beginning to loosen," while Zillow data showed home sales jumped in June and mortgage costs fell below year-ago levels.
The Compass study controlled for more than 50 confounding variables including property characteristics, agent attributes, seller demographics and neighborhood-level conditions. However, the analysis only covered transactions that closed during the period and did not account for listings that expired or were withdrawn, nor did it disclose price adjustments made during the pre-marketing phases.
Compass also highlighted research by Dr. Darren Hayunga of the University of Georgia, who found that pocket listings in the Dallas-Fort Worth area between 2002 and 2022 sold for a 1.7% premium on average, with luxury properties commanding an 8.2% premium. That study compared homes listed on the MLS with those that had zero days on market and were only added after sale — a narrower definition than Compass's phased approach.
Broader Market Shows Signs of Thaw
Beyond Compass's proprietary data, multiple indicators point to a gradual recovery in housing activity. Redfin reported that the median luxury home sale price rose 4.7% year-over-year during the three months ending May 31 — more than triple the gain in non-luxury prices. Veros Real Estate Solutions described the market as "stuck, not sinking," while the National Federation of Independent Business reported that small business optimism rose 2.1 points in June and uncertainty declined.
The improving sentiment comes as mortgage rates have eased from their 2025 peaks, though they remain elevated relative to pre-pandemic levels. The Mortgage Bankers Association's purchase index has shown modest improvement in recent weeks, suggesting buyers are gradually re-entering the market after a prolonged period of caution.
What the Premium Means for Sellers
For homeowners considering a sale, the Compass data suggests that patience in the pre-marketing phase can yield meaningful financial returns. The 4.6% premium on a $430,000 home translates to nearly $20,000 — a sum that more than covers typical closing costs and commission fees in many markets. The trade-off, however, is time: properties in the pre-marketing phases may take longer to reach a signed contract when counting the days spent as a Private Exclusive or Coming Soon listing, data that Compass did not disclose.
Reffkin's bullish stance on Fox Business reflects a broader shift in tone among housing industry executives. After a year marked by affordability constraints and limited inventory, the combination of easing mortgage costs, rising consumer confidence and data showing pricing power for strategic sellers is beginning to reshape the narrative around the US housing market.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
