Bitcoin targets $100K as Treasury doubles long-end buybacks

Bitcoin climbed more than 6 percent to nearly $69,000 on Wednesday, its highest since June, after the US Treasury doubled long-dated buyback operations.

"Investors should now be positioning for a move to USD $100,000 by year-end 2026," Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said in a client note.

The Treasury will raise the maximum size of buyback operations targeting 10- to 20-year and 20- to 30-year nominal coupon securities from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, effective Sept. 9 through Nov. 4. The announcement sent the 30-year yield down to about 5.19 percent from Tuesday's 5.34 percent peak, the highest since 2007, while the 10-year yield fell to 4.647 percent. Bitcoin rose from an intraday low near $64,100 to above $69,000 before retracing to around $68,000, with more than $1.2 billion in crypto positions liquidated within one hour as shorts were squeezed.

Kendrick identified $65,500 as the key technical level, saying a break above that threshold would confirm the cycle low is already in. The Treasury's expanded buybacks do not amount to quantitative easing — they are designed to improve liquidity in existing securities without reducing the government's overall debt burden — but the market reaction showed how sensitive Bitcoin has become to changes in long-term borrowing costs.

Falling yields give Bitcoin breathing room

The Treasury said the larger operations reflect its "desire to provide greater liquidity support in longer-dated nominal sectors where there is consistent strong sponsorship from market participants." The move follows a sharp repricing at the long end of the curve as investors demanded greater compensation for inflation, heavy government borrowing, and a surge in corporate issuance tied to AI investment.

Rising long-term yields, particularly real yields, raise the cost of capital and increase the returns available from risk-free government debt, weighing on long-duration assets including technology stocks and Bitcoin. Wednesday's reversal removed one source of pressure as Bitcoin recovered above $66,000.

Andre Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, said the Treasury action showed the "system is showing first signs of cracking," as policymakers respond to pressure in long-duration government debt. "Bitcoin is the canary in the macro coal mine that anticipates changes in financial conditions both to the downside AND upside," he added.

Liquidation cascade hits shorts

CoinGlass data showed more than $1.2 billion in crypto positions were liquidated within one hour, with Bitcoin and Ethereum accounting for most of the losses. Short traders betting against the rally lost about $1.29 billion during the period. Over the past 24 hours, more than 110,000 traders were liquidated for over $1.45 billion, with the largest single liquidation a $32 million ETH-USD position on Bitget.

Ethereum rose as high as $2,100, breaking above $2,000 for the first time since June.

Matt Cole, chairman of Bitcoin treasury company Strive, said federal debt and persistent deficits leave policymakers with difficult choices: tolerate higher real rates and tighter financial conditions, or manage the strain through policies that support liquidity and nominal growth. "There is no painless path. The question is simply where the adjustment gets absorbed," he said.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.