Bitcoin steadies near $63,500 as FOMC minutes, EU ban test markets

Bitcoin traded near $63,500 on Aug. 17, holding above the $62,300 support zone as traders positioned for a week of macro events spanning Federal Reserve policy direction, a stablecoin partnership renewal, and a European regulatory deadline.

"The market is anchored around an important cost-basis area despite a more supportive US interest-rate outlook," Vikram Subburaj, CEO at Giottus, said. "Sellers appear increasingly exhausted, but buyers have not returned with enough conviction to drive a breakout."

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $385.2 million in net outflows across the five sessions through Aug. 14, reversing part of the $865.3 million in inflows from the prior week, according to fund flow data. Fed futures imply a 66.9 percent probability of no rate change in September after weaker employment, inflation and retail-sales data, with July retail sales falling 0.6 percent.

The FOMC minutes from the July 28-29 meeting, due at 2 p.m. ET on Aug. 19, will be the week's clearest indication of whether policymakers lean toward additional tightening. Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, sees just a 25 percent chance of a September hike, expecting the first move in December even as he forecasts inflation rising again in early 2027.

USDC Renewal and EU Ban Add Structural Headwinds

Coinbase and Circle's USDC collaboration agreement enters its first three-year renewal term on Aug. 18, locking in the revenue-sharing economics that underpin one of the largest dollar-pegged stablecoins in circulation. The renewal provides continuity for exchanges and platforms that rely on USDC for settlement and liquidity.

Two days later, the EU's ban on transactions with 14 named crypto-asset service platforms becomes applicable on Aug. 23. EU-based operators face a hard cutoff date to sever relationships with the listed platforms, a deadline that forces compliance decisions quickly and could reshape liquidity channels inside the bloc.

Oil Pressure and Rate Expectations Weigh on Risk Assets

Brent crude held near $88.50 a barrel after rising 5 percent last week, with US-Iran tensions and stalled peace talks adding a geopolitical overhang. Higher oil prices typically dampen risk appetite and can push investors away from crypto, while elevated inflation expectations complicate the Fed's path.

Bitcoin faces immediate resistance at $64,000-$66,500, with a sustained reclaim of $68,700 — the short-term holder cost basis — needed to return recent buyers to profitability. On the downside, $62,300-$62,650 serves as the first support layer, followed by $62,000 and the stronger daily demand zone around $59,500-$60,800.

Ethereum traded near $1,890, showing comparatively better momentum with daily RSI near 54. A sustained move through $1,917-$1,925 could open $1,950-$1,975, while losing $1,865 would weaken the setup.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.