Bitcoin stalls near $64,000 as $9.6B options expiry caps rally

Bitcoin's July rebound stalled at $64,000 as a $9.6 billion monthly options expiry absorbed upside momentum and spot volumes sank to multi-year lows.

Bitcoin held near $63,824 after 149,000 options worth $9.6 billion expired at the $64,000 strike on July 31, capping a 9.3% monthly gain.

"The conditions for a rally are not in place," Greeks.live, a derivatives data provider, said, citing limited capital inflows and weak follow-through when U.S. equities rebounded.

The expiry represented about 30% of outstanding Bitcoin contracts, according to Greeks.live. The 0.28 put-call ratio showed call open interest far exceeded puts, but most upside positions clustered at $70,000 and $72,000 strikes — out of the money at settlement. Ether options worth $830 million expired with a 0.63 put-call ratio and $1,850 max pain, with ETH trading near $1,891.

The settlement leaves Bitcoin below the heavy $65,000 resistance zone that has capped rallies since early July. Traders now watch the August 28 monthly expiry, where about $3.15 billion in Bitcoin options is already positioned, and whether spot ETF inflows can sustain momentum after U.S. funds drew $233.1 million on July 30.

Spot volume and ETF flows show fading demand

The options settlement unfolded against the weakest spot trading backdrop in years. K33 Research put average daily Bitcoin spot volume at roughly $2.2 billion in July, the lowest since November 2023. On-chain analyst Darkfost tracked declines of more than 75% versus late 2024 across major venues, with Binance handling just over $35 billion in July against $246 billion in November 2024. Volume fell 85% on Bybit, 67% on OKX and 61% on Coinbase over the same period.

Glassnode, measuring in coins rather than dollars, placed spot volume at its lowest since 2019. Exchange inflows near 60,000 BTC on a 30-day average sit at roughly 76% of the annual average near 79,000 BTC, with net flow near -1,300 BTC. "Exchanges are not accumulating additional supply, but there is also no large-scale withdrawal of coins that could create a shortage of liquid supply," analyst Axel Adler Jr. said.

Institutional demand cooled through July. Weekly flows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $197.4 million in the week ending July 10, then shrank to $75.7 million and $33.8 million before flipping to a $29.3 million net outflow in the week to July 29. The July 30 session brought $233.1 million back in, led by BlackRock's IBIT with $183.4 million, but flows have alternated between gains and withdrawals.

Bitcoin's technical setup reflects the indecision. The asset trades just below the EMA200 at $63,950.71 and the EMA50 at $64,427.65, with RSI at 44.65 and Bollinger bands bounded by $63,258.31 support and $65,009.53 resistance. A sustained move above $65,000, stronger spot volume and several consecutive ETF inflow sessions would provide clearer evidence of improving demand. Without those conditions, July's price gains could prove difficult to sustain, with Bitcoin having finished each of the past four Augusts in negative territory with a median monthly return of -7.49%.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.