Bitcoin slips below $79,000 as Fed hike odds hold near 60%

Bitcoin fell below $79,000 as traders priced a 60% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike at next week's FOMC meeting, tightening conditions for risk assets.

UBS Global Wealth Management now expects quarter-point increases in both September and December, reversing its earlier call for no policy change this year, after strong August labor data, hawkish Fed communication and inflation risks from supply bottlenecks, the bank said Sept. 7.

Fed funds futures moved the probability of a hike at the Sept. 15-16 meeting to roughly 60%, up from about 50% before Friday's payrolls report, which showed 162,000 jobs added in August against expectations of around 55,000, with unemployment steady at 4.1%. Bitcoin traded near $79,375 at 14:02 UTC on Sept. 7 before slipping below the round level, according to CryptoSlate data. The two-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 4.37%, its highest since January 2025, raising the opportunity cost of holding an asset that pays no interest.

The next test is August CPI on Sept. 11, the last inflation reading before the Fed votes, with the committee in a communications blackout through Sept. 17. A hotter print would strengthen the case for restraint and could push Bitcoin toward its next support, while cooler inflation would ease the pressure.

Zcash led losses among major tokens on Tuesday, with the altcoin complex falling harder than Bitcoin as the macro repricing hit higher-beta assets first. Most tokens still held weekly gains, pointing to mixed momentum beneath the one-day selloff rather than broad capitulation.

The transmission runs through rates. Higher expected US policy rates keep Treasury yields supported, preserve the appeal of dollar assets and make investors less willing to take risk, a dynamic that pressures non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. A 2023 IMF working paper found that Fed tightening reduced a common crypto price factor through weaker risk-taking, evidence that the historical relationship runs through monetary conditions.

UBS's December call extends that headwind beyond the September decision, with the next meeting scheduled for Dec. 8-9. Markets respond not only to the immediate decision but to the expected path of rates across several meetings, meaning financing conditions can tighten before policymakers deliver an increase. For Bitcoin, the question is whether incoming inflation data push expected rates higher and whether yields and broader financial conditions follow.

Bitcoin's break below $79,000 marks a psychological and technical threshold for the flagship cryptocurrency. A sustained move lower would open the next support zone, with the CPI print and FOMC decision determining whether sellers hold the initiative into the second half of September.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.