Bitcoin slips below $64,000 despite cooler 3.4% CPI print

Bitcoin traded near $64,190 on Aug. 12, down 0.22%, after a cooler 3.4% July CPI print failed to push the token above $65,000 resistance.

The July reading, down from 3.5% in June, kept prediction markets pricing a 62% chance the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% at the September FOMC meeting, according to CoinGape data.

Bitcoin's market cap stood near $1.3 trillion with 24-hour volume around $14 billion, while total crypto liquidations reached $187 million in the past day — $122 million in longs and $64 million in shorts across 78,930 traders, Coinglass data shows. Open interest on BTC futures was $47 billion with funding at 0.0066%.

The $65,000-$65,500 band remains the immediate hurdle, with a confirmed close above it opening a path toward $66,500 and the 100-day EMA near $67,600. On the downside, $62,500 is the first support, followed by the on-chain cost-basis zone of $61,849-$64,374, where more than 2.36 million BTC last moved, per Glassnode's URPD data cited by analyst Ali Martinez.

Why a Cooler CPI Didn't Lift Bitcoin

The muted reaction to the inflation print reflects a market that has already priced in a patient Fed. Prediction markets show 62% of investors expect rates to stay at 3.50%-3.75% in September, and the cooling CPI — while supportive of risk assets in theory — did not shift that calculus enough to draw fresh buying into BTC. Ethereum traded at $1,915, up 1.26%, while the broader crypto market cap held near $2.2 trillion with the Fear and Greed Index at 27, still in fear territory.

Bottom Signals Emerge as Volume Stays Thin

Despite the failed breakout, on-chain data points to accumulation. Exchange balances have trended lower through the 2026 pullback, a sign long-term holders are moving coins to cold storage rather than selling, while the URPD concentration at $61,849-$64,374 suggests a large cohort of holders has a cost basis in that band. Bitcoin's RSI sits near 56 with the ADX around 11, indicating weak directional trend — consistent with a market consolidating before a decisive move. Thin volume over recent sessions has made the $65,000 test harder to read, since fewer participants are actively pushing price in either direction.

The next sustained move above or below the current range matters more than any single intraday spike. A daily close above $65,000 would strengthen the short-term bullish structure and shift attention to $67,000-$67,600, while a rejection risks a retest of $62,500 and the broader $61,849-$64,374 support zone. With the September FOMC meeting as the next macro milestone, traders are weighing whether the cooling inflation trend can finally convert $65,000 from resistance into support.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.