Bitcoin slides 1.3% to $63,870 as macro tensions revive 2022 comparisons

Bitcoin fell 1.31 percent to $63,870 on July 31 as renewed macroeconomic tensions revived comparisons to the 2022 bear market.

The CoinDesk 20 Index has gained 8.7 percent since June, the biggest monthly advance since July last year, though it dropped 2.34 percent since midnight Monday, according to CoinDesk data. Ether fell 1.40 percent to $1,890 after struggling to regain the $2,000 level touched earlier this month.

Derivatives positioning reflects the bearish tilt. Bitcoin's futures open interest remained static at roughly 750,000 contracts throughout the month, while the 30-day implied volatility index fell to 37 percent, the lowest since May. On Deribit, $10 billion in bitcoin and ether options expired early Friday, with a $60,000 put emerging as the most popular bet in remaining expiries extending to June 2027.

The 2022 comparison carries weight because the current setup mirrors that period's macro conditions: Middle East conflict, hawkish Federal Reserve commentary, and equity-crypto divergence. Bitcoin's early-month bounce from under $58,000 has stalled in the $62,000-$65,000 range, with traders unwilling to deploy capital in leveraged products.

Derivatives Signal Downside Bias

Taker long-short futures volume ratios continue to lean bearish, suggesting a downside bias, according to CoinDesk data. Most major tokens, including UNI, show negative 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta, a feature consistently observed during sharp downtrends over the past year. A negative CVD means traders are shorting more aggressively at market orders than passive limit orders.

XRP's futures open interest rose further, extending a three-week upswing to 2.27 billion tokens, the most since late June, even as the token's price declined to $1.07 from $1.13. A combination of falling price alongside rising open interest confirms the downtrend, a sign traders are shorting in anticipation of a deeper drop.

Uniswap's UNI token was the exception, rising 9.30 percent to $4.41 on continued momentum from its Robinhood layer-2 integration announced earlier this month. BlackRock's decision to debut its tokenized Treasury fund on Uniswap has also supported the token. UNI's open interest rose to 75.80 million tokens, a level last seen Feb. 14.

The crypto selloff diverged sharply from equities, with South Korea's Kospi surging more than 15 percent and Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 index futures in the green. This divergence shows that crypto's correction is driven by crypto-specific macro sensitivities rather than a broad risk-off move.

The conflict in the Middle East and hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve committee have dented crypto's recovery hopes this week. Bitcoin's implied volatility at 37 percent has historically served as a floor, bringing about a bounce in the fear index. However, since ETFs debuted in 2024, the BTC price correlation with the BVIV has been negative, meaning any bounce in the volatility index could be accompanied by a fresh decline in the spot price.

The key level to watch is $62,000, the lower bound of the current trading range. A break below that could accelerate selling pressure and deepen the 2022 comparison, while a recovery above $65,000 would signal that the correction is contained.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.