Bitcoin holds July gain near $62,950 as forced-selling fuel spent

Bitcoin held its July monthly gain near $62,950 on Friday, with analysts saying the forced-selling that pressured prices earlier this month has already been exhausted.

"The forced-selling fuel was already spent," analysts said in a CoinDesk market report published Friday at 16:50 UTC, noting the largest cryptocurrency shrugged off a barrage of bearish news through July.

Bitcoin traded at $62,949.85 as of Friday's close, down 2.66 percent ($1,720.82) on the day, according to Yahoo Finance data. The decline came as the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady in a split decision, with Chairman Warsh defending the central bank's stance while Treasury yields remained elevated. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,100 points earlier in the week as bond yields spiked following the Fed decision, before recovering to close at 52,485.03, up 0.53 percent.

The next test comes with the release of US jobs data, which could determine whether the Fed's next move is a hike or a hold. If the data comes in strong, rate hike fears could intensify and pressure Bitcoin further. Conversely, the depletion of forced-selling fuel suggests limited downside and a potential base for recovery.

The macro backdrop has been challenging for risk assets. The Fed's decision to hold rates steady came with a split vote, and Chairman Warsh has faced criticism over what some call an "inflation credibility shock." Treasury yields have stayed elevated, with mortgage rates hitting their highest level in a year.

Despite these headwinds, Bitcoin's resilience through July suggests the market has already priced in much of the bad news. The 2024-2025 crypto boom, driven by institutional liquidity expansion from US spot ETF approvals and digital asset treasuries, created a foundation that has helped absorb recent selling pressure. The current year has seen sideways action with sudden sell-offs and gradual recoveries, according to market analysis.

Jobs data as the next test

The upcoming US jobs report will be the next major event for Bitcoin and broader risk assets. A strong print could reinforce the case for further tightening, while a weak number might ease rate hike fears and support crypto prices. Traders will be watching how Bitcoin responds to the data release.

Divergence from equities

Bitcoin's modest decline on Friday contrasted with gains in US equities. The S&P 500 closed at 7,489.72, up 0.70 percent, while the Nasdaq gained 1.00 percent to 25,373.85, buoyed by a record-breaking Microsoft rally that added 15 percent in a single day — the largest single-day market cap jump in history. Apple also topped $5 trillion in market cap intraday.

The divergence highlights Bitcoin's sensitivity to monetary policy expectations and dollar strength, even as equities are supported by AI-driven earnings optimism. For traders, the key question is whether Bitcoin can maintain its July gains if the jobs data triggers another round of rate hike repricing.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.