Bitcoin gains 8% in month as altcoin open interest slides 15%

Bitcoin gained 8 percent in a month as altcoin open interest slid 15 percent, with traders rotating toward the two largest tokens.

"Because Bitcoin has moved into capital markets plumbing with ETFs, basis trading, institutional hedging, and collateral, that flow doesn't need a rally to justify itself. However, most of the altcoin market hasn't made that transition yet," Ebtikar, a crypto analyst, said.

CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season index fell one point from Wednesday to 42/100. Bitcoin futures open interest increased to 770,000 BTC, though similar spikes since early June have been brief, with OI falling back to 740,000 BTC or lower the following day. The long-short taker volume ratio flipped bullish for the first time in at least a week, with longs accounting for nearly 52 percent.

The divergence stems from projects failing to define how value accrues to their tokens, making them unable to justify investor exposure during market declines. Tech stocks added pressure — the Nasdaq 100 fell while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose, after SpaceX shares dropped 13 percent following its June IPO.

BTC Open Interest at 770K, XRP Leverage Unwinds

Bitcoin's futures open interest increased to 770,000 BTC, though similar spikes since early June have been brief, with OI falling back to 740,000 BTC or lower the following day. A sustained rise is needed to show confidence is being restored. Other key metrics — annualized perp funding rates and 24-hour OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta — are positive for BTC, supporting a bullish outlook.

XRP's OI increased 5 percent over 24 hours to 2.23 billion tokens while the token's price dropped to $1.04, the lowest since early July. The combination of falling price and rising OI confirms market weakness, with XRP's perp funding rates negative and its OI-adjusted CVD among the most negative of the majors, second only to XLM.

Ether's OI remains lackluster, staying below the 14 million ETH mark. Solana futures OI fell for another day to 60.81 million tokens, having peaked above 76.5 million on June 24.

Bitcoin implied volatility held steady near 36 percent on the BVIV index. In Deribit options, bitcoin's 24-hour volume ranking shows increased interest in calls at strikes well above spot, including $96,000 and $80,000. For ether, the $2,000 call was the most traded of the past 24 hours.

NEAR's AI-Compute Bet Faces Demand Test

NEAR traded at $1.68 on Thursday, down 1.8 percent over 24 hours after slipping from an intraday high of $1.73. The token carries a $2.19 billion market cap, and its price hasn't tracked the ecosystem's AI-compute push higher.

The network recently started a staking product that lets holders lock up NEAR to provision computing power for AI applications, tying the token's use to compute rather than governance or speculation. The model only works if the demand behind it is real, said Leo Fan, CEO of Cysic.

"Credits aren't the same as usage," Fan said. "Stake-to-compute setups can give a token a clearer economic purpose, but early activity is often driven by incentives, with developers showing up for rewards rather than because they need the compute."

Watch three things, Fan said: utilization — how much of the staked compute is actually being used — workload volume, and whether developers keep paying after subsidies taper. Sustained demand from AI builders will prove the model out; a drop-off when rewards fade would mark it as temporary.

The flight to safety toward bitcoin and ether could lead to sustained underperformance for altcoins, with the top two assets' dominance likely to grow. Stock-tied perpetuals — including SNK, SPCX and SKYHYNIX — rank among the most traded contracts, indicating persistent demand for trading legacy assets with a crypto flavor.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.