Bitcoin ETFs post $33.8M weekly inflow as August looms with worst seasonal record

U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds attracted $33.8 million in net inflows for the week ended July 24, marking a third consecutive week of positive flows after eight straight weeks of outflows through mid-May, according to SoSoValue data. The modest weekly total masked a sharp reversal: funds shed $465.3 million across July 23 and July 24, ending a seven-session inflow streak, with BlackRock's IBIT product accounting for nearly $415 million of the late-week withdrawals.

"The repair phase has brought relief after May and June's heavy outflows, but institutional demand is still cautious," crypto analytics firm BRN said in a note. The weekly inflow figure shrank by 83 percent from the $197.4 million recorded in the week ending July 10, and the late-week outflows wiped out roughly two-thirds of the month's cumulative gains.

Bitcoin traded near $65,244 as of 07:00 UTC on July 27, down from a July high of about $66,500 reached on July 21, according to CoinGecko data. The retreat coincided with a sell-off in U.S. tech stocks — the Nasdaq 100 fell as chipmaker stocks declined — and renewed U.S.-Iran tensions that pushed risk assets lower. The Federal Reserve's July 28-29 meeting now looms, with rates at 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent and markets split on whether the central bank will cut or hold.

The late-week outflows matter because they arrived just as Bitcoin enters its weakest seasonal stretch. August has a median return of negative 7.87 percent, the worst of any month, and has closed red every year since 2022, according to historical data. July, by contrast, has closed green for three consecutive years and is up about 11.5 percent this month even after last week's pullback.

Whales Accumulate as Long-Term Holders Slow

The divergence between whale and long-term holder behavior underscores the uncertainty. The number of entities holding at least 1,000 Bitcoin rose from 1,263 to roughly 1,267 between July 23 and July 26, according to Glassnode data — the same pattern that preceded a near-4 percent Bitcoin gain in late June. Whales appear to be positioning for a short-term rebound.

Long-term holders are moving in the opposite direction. The net position change metric, which tracks how much supply long-term wallets add or shed each month, fell 47 percent to 15,766 Bitcoin on July 26 from 29,838 Bitcoin on July 11, even as the price held near $65,000. The slowdown suggests conviction holders are bracing for a correction, mirroring the caution already visible in ETF flows.

Ethereum Outpaces Bitcoin in July Fund Flows

The rotation within crypto funds tells a similar story of selective demand. Ethereum ETFs attracted $337.7 million in July, more than double the $157.7 million that flowed into Bitcoin funds over the same period, according to SoSoValue data. The ETH/BTC ratio has climbed for three straight weeks, and ether has risen about 11 percent since mid-July, outpacing most large-cap tokens.

The divergence reflects a specific catalyst: Robinhood's blockchain, launched July 1, now processes more than $800 million a day in mostly memecoin trading, with every transaction requiring ether for fees. That on-chain activity has created real demand for the token, while Bitcoin's flows remain tied to macro uncertainty and the seasonal headwind of August.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.