Bitcoin enters initial bull phase, $83K remains key confirmation level

Bitcoin's 24% rally since Aug. 17 flipped CryptoQuant's Bull Score from 30 to 80, placing the asset in the initial phase of a new bull market.

"Market regime has switched to Bull for Bitcoin. Basically all metrics are pointing to the initial phase of a new bull market," Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said.

Eight of the index's 10 underlying indicators now flash bullish, with apparent spot demand growing at its fastest monthly pace since late December. Spot and futures demand are expanding together for the first time since October 2025, according to the analytics firm.

Bitcoin still needs a weekly close above its 365-day moving average, currently around $83,000, before CryptoQuant officially confirms the new bull market. That level also coincides with the anchored volume-weighted average price from all-time highs and the 365-day rolling VWAP, both of which have capped price throughout the bear market.

Bitcoin climbed above $80,000 during the rally, its highest level since May 15, before easing to around $79,000 at the time of writing, according to CoinGecko data. LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger pointed to the May 2026 high of $82,820 as the next important level. "A clear break above that level would reinforce the view that a meaningful cycle low is now in place and shift attention towards the next major move through $100,000 and, ultimately, the 2025 record high," Kruger said.

Technical analyst Nik, writing in his 90th Market Outlook on Substack, called Bitcoin's 20% weekly surge off the 200-week moving average at $64,500 one of the most decisive technical breaks of this cycle. Weekly RSI broke firmly above 50 for the first time since last year, though weekly structure remains bearish until a close above the May highs near $83,000. Above that level, Nik targets the yearly open at $89,000 as the next meaningful stop.

Whale profit-taking hits record $614 million

Despite the bullish signals, CryptoQuant warned the rally may be overheated in the short term. Trader unrealized profit margins have climbed to 20.5%, their highest since June 2025. Bitcoin fell about 30% after the metric reached 19% in early May, when BTC traded near $82,000.

Short-term holder whales realized about $1.2 billion in profits between Aug. 20 and Aug. 22, including a record $614 million on Aug. 20, as Bitcoin traded near $78,000 to $79,000. Exchange inflows also climbed to roughly 53,000 BTC, their highest since June, with more coins moving onto trading platforms where they could be sold.

Ethereum has mirrored the shift. The second-largest cryptocurrency rallied from $1,827 support to close just below its 200-week moving average at $2,463, its highest weekly close since May. A weekly close above that level opens a retest of the $2,700 to $3,000 resistance cluster, according to Nik.

The $83,000 level now serves as the critical battleground. A decisive weekly close above it would confirm the new bull market and open the path toward $89,000 and beyond. A rejection could see Bitcoin retest the $70,000 to $74,000 range, which Nik identified as the most likely area for a higher-low to form.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.