Bitcoin climbs 4.4% to $65,086 as Bitfinex warns rally lacks spot demand

Bitcoin rose 4.4% to $65,086 on July 14, its highest close since June 22, after the softest US inflation print since 2020 shifted rate expectations.

The rally "borrowed strength" from macro repricing rather than steady Bitcoin-specific buying, Bitfinex said in its Alpha report published July 15.

June headline CPI fell 0.4% month over month, bringing the annual rate to 3.5% from 4.2% and below the 3.8% consensus. Core inflation stood at 2.6%. Market-implied odds of a July rate hike dropped to 12.3% from 42%, while the two-year US Treasury yield fell as much as 14 basis points. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $424.7 million in net outflows on July 13, erasing the prior week's gains, before attracting $181.1 million in inflows on July 14 — led by BlackRock's IBIT at $138.9 million.

Bitfinex identified the $68,000 to $68,300 band as the key test, where the short-term holder cost basis at $68,073 converges with the second-quarter opening price near $68,266. A rejection at that level, combined with rising funding rates and elevated put demand, could keep Bitcoin within its broader trading range.

The report described the move as a "borrowed bid," citing limited spot buying, a negative Coinbase premium and inconsistent ETF flows as evidence that macro conditions remained the primary driver. Strategy reported no change in its 843,775 BTC holdings during the latest period, while raising $466.7 million through an equity offering to support corporate obligations.

Options markets reflected continued caution. Traders were paying higher premiums for put options, with 25-delta skew showing puts five to seven volatility points above calls even as Bitcoin rallied. Bitfinex said a rise in annualized funding above 15 percent to 20 percent near the resistance zone would increase the risk of another pullback.

The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, released July 15, showed price growth was the same or slower in all districts compared with the prior period, reinforcing the softer inflation narrative. New York Fed President John Williams also made dovish comments, further reducing the likelihood of a July rate increase. On Polymarket, the perceived odds of a rate hike plunged from 34% to 6.7% after the CPI data.

Bitfinex warned that a rise in oil prices or renewed inflation concerns could quickly reverse the macro tailwind. Brent crude traded above $85 a barrel, and Iran's threat to block Middle East energy exports kept geopolitical risks elevated. The focus now shifts to US producer prices due later on July 15 and PCE data near the end of the month.

CEX trading volumes rose for the first time in five months in June, with spot climbing 15.3% to $1.11 trillion and RWA perpetual volumes surging to a record $311 billion, according to industry data. The pickup in exchange activity suggests broader market engagement, though Bitfinex said sustained ETF inflows remain the key test for Bitcoin's ability to break above $68,300.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.