Bitcoin $107K buyers signal 2026 bear market bottom, Glassnode says

Bitcoin investors who bought near the cycle top are showing the same loss-realization reversal that preceded every bear-market bottom since 2014.

Bitcoin's 1- to 2-year holders recorded $75 million in daily realized losses before the metric began reversing, a pattern that marked prior cycle lows, Glassnode data show.

"When the 30-day SMA of their realized loss cools and rolls over, it has often been among the clearest early signals that the heaviest distribution phase is behind the market," Cryptovizart, lead research analyst at Glassnode, said in an X post.

The cohort — investors who bought BTC between July 2024 and July 2025, when prices ranged from $62,800 to $107,000 — had been increasing loss realization as frustration built with sustained price underperformance. The 30-day moving average of those losses recently crossed $75 million before beginning to decline, mirroring reversals seen at the 2015, 2019, and 2023 cycle lows.

The signal arrives as Bitcoin trades near $62,865, roughly 50 percent below its October 2025 record high of $126,000. Short-term holders' aggregate cost basis at $69,000 represents the next major resistance, with a convincing reclaim potentially opening a path toward $75,000 to $80,000 by August, according to trader Michaël van de Poppe.

$44,000 to $47,000 zone emerges as potential floor

Two independent models converge on a deeper floor if selling resumes. A linear regression of the final 91-day drawdowns across the last three bear markets — which saw declines of 63.5 percent (2014-2015), 56.7 percent (2018), and 37.6 percent (2022) — projects a 26.6 percent drop from the recent high of $64,657, implying a bottom near $47,431 by early October. A logarithmic Fibonacci retracement from the $126,272 all-time high to the $15,632 prior cycle low places the 0.5 midpoint at $44,428, reinforcing a $44,000 to $47,000 target zone.

Glassnode's broader on-chain dashboard supports the late-stage bear thesis. Bitcoin has traded below both the True Market Mean of $76,600 and the short-term holder cost basis of $72,200 since early February 2026 — a five-month discount that ranks among the longest in the asset's history. Long-term holder losses peaked at nearly $280 million per day in June, the highest since December 2022, though that pressure has yet to fully cool.

ETF flows and macro data hold the near-term keys

Institutional demand remains a missing ingredient. Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows averaged $88.9 million per day in recent weeks, down from a June peak but still negative. QCP Capital noted in a July 14 research note that improving macro data could shift risk sentiment into digital assets, which have lagged the broader equity rally.

July has historically offered relief even in bear years. Bitcoin gained roughly 20 percent in July 2018 and 17 percent in July 2022, according to CryptoQuant. Total demand has recovered from a contraction near 650,000 BTC in early June toward neutral, while the Coinbase Premium Index rose to minus 0.062 as BTC bounced from $57,000.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.